Why do 80% of Georgians support EU membership while 54.2% back pro-Russian Georgian Dream party?

Orest Sohar, a Ukrainian journalist, analyzed the situation in Georgia.

He stated that the analysis of the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia showcases the effectiveness of Russian strategies. In 2012, the ruling party changed when a pro-Kremlin force led by the country’s wealthiest businessman, Bidzina Ivanishvili, won the election. In 2024, Georgians had their minds changed.

“Ivanishvili skillfully taps into the conservative sentiments of society, promoting the “information package” that Putin has been testing in Russia. This includes everything from total protection against the “popularization of LGBT issues” to the fight against “enemies of the people,” represented by so-called foreign agents,” Sohar notes.

According to him, the Kremlin's direct influence was significant. International investigators hacked into communications from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, revealing that Russian intelligence officials doubted the “organic victory” of the Georgian Dream party and suggested preparing “radical measures” to avoid a “new Armenia.” It appears they were discussing plans to falsify the elections, followed by a brutal crackdown on protests if necessary, in the Belarusian scenario of 2020.

The Ukrainian journalist mentioned that during the election, the Georgian Dream waged a separate campaign of intimidation focused on a “possible war.” The country had already experienced a war with Russia and lost some territories, making the scaremongering particularly effective. “If not us, then there will be war” became one of the slogans of the Georgian Dream, which openly called for collaboration with Russia. Even on election day, Ivanishvili convinced voters that external forces wanted to “involve Georgia in the war.

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“By 2024, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party had already won the parliamentary elections three times, but it had recently been dangling the hope of future EU membership in front of voters. However, in 2024, the Georgian Dream triggered the biggest crisis in Georgia's relations with the West in the past 20 years by passing a law on foreign agents. As a result, the country’s European integration has been put on hold, and the United States, Tbilisi's key partner, has started to reassess its bilateral relations,” Sohar adds.

Rumors suggest that the Kremlin is preparing some offers for Tbilisi, including the return of two regions - South Ossetia and Abkhazia - that are currently under Russian military control. Ivanishvili is expected to announce the “restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity.” This would be an unequal trade: two regions in exchange for full control over the country, including vital logistics routes, especially the land corridor through Georgia and Armenia to Iran.

As reported by journalist, the opposition had a chance to defeat the Georgian Dream by presenting a united front, but their political ambitions got in the way. Four different opposition groups ran in the election and couldn’t win against the Dream, so now they’re focused on not losing ground.

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The Georgian Dream secured 89 out of 150 votes, and the parliament needs at least 100 MPs to function. Opposition parties are trying to unite by refusing to participate in parliament, effectively blocking it. However, it remains to be seen if they will really come together ahead of a potential “political execution.”

On the flip side, the Georgian Dream, backed by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, has long been preparing for a scenario similar to what happened in Belarus, and they are unlikely to stop at just “constitutional formalities.” They may simply seize power. The population is so scared by the ongoing war in Ukraine that they seem to have forgotten their national pride, the Rose Revolution, and the brave days of their country’s democratization.

“The Georgian situation is important for every Ukrainian voter to understand how dangerous political Russophilia can be. While we can’t change the past, we can work to prevent a dangerous future,” Orest Sohar concluded.

• Doctor of Historical Sciences and political scientist Vadym Denysenko shared his perspective on how events in Georgia might unfold following the elections.