Espreso. Global
OPINION

Georgia is not interesting to any Western player

28 October, 2024 Monday
15:16

Over the past month, many have discussed how Chechens won the first war and later got Kadyrov. Now, similar narratives are emerging about Georgia. Why?

client/title.list_title

It should start with the understanding that any elections, revolutions, and societal changes occur in the presence of six factors: a leader, an idea (ideology), structures, money, time, and international support (or lack thereof). I elaborated on this in my books 'Politicians Don’t Lie' and 'How to Destroy the Russian World.' Therefore, when analyzing any situation, it is essential to take a comprehensive look at all these issues.

I won't focus on Chechnya, as the text would become too lengthy, so I will concentrate only on Georgia.

Let’s start with the leader. Unfortunately, for pro-Western Georgia, it was not so much Ivanishvili who played a negative role, but rather Saakashvili. Why? He lost the elections for several reasons, but the main one, in my opinion, is that he became too much for society, and people grew tired of him.

Tiredness is fundamentally a basic factor in life, and in elections, as well as in making the most unexpected decisions, it is indispensable. This was compounded by promises of a better life and the fear of the repetition of war.

We should also highlight the factor of a lack of novelty: people became accustomed to living with electricity for eight years and believed that the police would not take bribes after Saakashvili (and, by the way, they were not mistaken).

In short, he lost due to many factors. Then Saakashvili made a colossal mistake: he didn’t just come to Ukraine; he became a citizen and even led one of Ukraine's regions. Simply put, he ceased to be Georgian. Furthermore, he gave countless reasons for Georgians to view him as a symbol of destructiveness. His return to Georgia completely disrupted the opposition's game in the previous elections. The opposition could not create another strong leader; rather, they all remained in the destructive shadow of Mikheil.

The opposition's idea was not the best either. 

European integration always loses money if there is no consolidation of the elites regarding the immutability of the state's course. The people were given an alternative: small but regular handouts plus a promise that there would be no war. The opposition responded by offering a bright future, forgetting that people like to be bought.

In all uncertain situations, people generally choose money and stability (I discussed this in detail in my book Politicians Don’t Lie). Only a new grand idea that, among other things, promises future financial benefits can make money secondary. In one election, understanding that he would lose, Ivanishvili took an unprecedented step: he paid off debts. No European idea on its own can overcome this narrative.

In the recent elections, in addition to money, there was another significant idea: Ivanishvili proposed his decree for peace, supported by a very social budget. All funds from the influx of Russians were redirected to social programs.

You may ask: “How can you vote for a pro-Russian party?” Just like in 2012, central Ukraine voted for the Party of Regions. Orwell called it doublethink, and all nations of the world have it. Only a strong elite can resist it. People on their own - almost never.

The structure involves not only party human resources, but also power resources. And the power resource is not only the security forces, but also those who are ready to confront the security forces. The opposition's protest potential lasted for more than 10 years. And this is really a lot. Is it exhausted? No, it is not. Can the situation turn in the other direction in the future? Yes.

I won't discuss time and money here, as the opposition had both resources and time, and they tried to manage them properly. However, the first two points overshadowed everything.

Regarding international support, Saakashvili traces its loss back to the moment he announced his desire to withdraw from the IMF. I personally heard him directly link his defeat to this statement. I won't go into details now, but Georgia, despite its geographic potential, is of little interest to any Western players. Unlike Moldova and Ukraine, Georgia is not appealing to the West, even geographically. Saakashvili sold the U.S. a relatively expensive showcase. Ivanishvili played the 'give us money' game with the West, while the Georgian opposition, for objective reasons, simply could not sell a European Georgia to Europeans under such circumstances.

That's a brief description of Georgia. But all of these things are necessary so that we don't just engage in unfounded complaints: how did this happen? We also need to look at ourselves a little differently.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Saturday
9 November
14:56
Drone strikes at military training ground in Russia's Rostov region - Defense Express
14:25
Exclusive
Trump desperately wants Nobel Peace Prize - politician 
14:00
Updated
Ukrainian drones attack a chemical plant producing ammunition in Russia's Tula region
13:33
Exclusive
Russians end up surrounded: Ukrainian serviceman denies Russian propaganda on Kursk fighting
13:00
Review
Russian attack aftermath, Kursk battles intensify, advances near Chasiv Yar. Serhiy Zgurets' column
12:26
Russia aims to seize more Ukrainian territory before winter freeze - Estonian Intelligence
11:58
Advancing with airborne troops - analysts on Russian counteroffensive in Kursk region
11:00
Ukrainian Defense Forces eliminate over 1,600 Russian troops overnight
10:40
Russia attacks Ukraine with Shaheds, guided bombs, causing casualties in Odesa
2024, Friday
8 November
21:30
Exclusive
Freezing front line in Ukraine would be big mistake for U.S. - American publicist
21:10
Russian ballistic missiles strike critical infrastructure in Sumy, leaving two injured
20:55
Musk joined Trump's call with Zelenskyy - media
20:41
What’s behind Trump’s claim to end war in 24 hours
20:20
Ukraine, Russia exchange updated lists of prisoners of war
20:05
Exclusive
Defense Express refutes claims that Russian strategic aviation is ordered to “еxhale and relax”
19:45
Interview
Will Trump bow to Putin? This is nonsense - Polish lawmaker Kowal
19:29
War in Ukraine can be easily ended with Trump administration's approach - Erdoğan
19:10
OPINION
Putin at Valdai whines for meeting with Trump
18:50
114 combat engagements reported at Ukraine-Russia front line, 32 in Kurakhove sector
18:34
European Council extends military training mission for Ukraine by two years
18:15
Ukraine returns bodies of 563 fallen soldiers
17:56
Exclusive
Russian army advances up to 2 km daily in Donetsk sector - Ukrainian major
17:35
Russian drone strikes building in Kyiv where Estonian Ambassador lives
17:15
Xi Jinping warns Trump U.S. would "lose from confrontation" with China
16:56
Pro-Russian hackers ramp up cyberattacks after DPRK deploys troops to Russia, says Seoul
16:32
Russian Kh-69 cluster warhead missiles: new threat to Ukraine’s infrastructure
16:13
Elderly man killed, homes damaged in Russia’s latest attack on Ukraine’s Kherson
15:57
IKEA store operator Ingka Group sells last Russian asset
15:38
Russia bombs Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city: civilian victims reported
15:17
Ukrainian police arrest international drug syndicate leaders, seize $20M in drugs
14:58
Review
Trump era: Kyiv Security Forum international overview
14:35
CO2 emissions in Ukraine rise by 180 million tons due to full-scale war
14:16
Exclusive
Putin's main goal is lifting sanctions — political expert
13:59
Exclusive
Russia starts using Shahed drones with thermobaric warheads — military expert Zgurets
13:39
Drones strike oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov, Ukraine allegedly behind attack
13:17
Ukraine to invite Russia to follow-up Peace Summit, but with conditions
12:58
OPINION
Zelenskyy's call with U.S. presidential election winner: dialogue with Trump is necessary
12:46
Russian forces intensify Kursk region assaults with strikes from within borders
12:28
147 clashes occur on Russian-Ukrainian front on Nov. 7 - General Staff
11:59
Review
Russia shifts drone warfare tactics, FPV drones become main tool in warfare. Serhiy Zgurets’ column
More news