West must take three actions for Georgia or risk losing it

There were electoral procedure violations, but the inequality and unfairness of these elections lie elsewhere.

We followed elections closely

Yes, there were violations of democratic election procedures, but I agree with the OSCE mission that they may have affected only a few percent of votes. Even without this, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili’s party would still have won Saturday’s vote, perhaps with 50% rather than exceeding it, as announced. The voting itself was indeed well-monitored by us, the observers, in most districts. The inequality and unfairness of these elections lie elsewhere.

Opposition activists were intimidated

The ruling party had enormous financial and institutional advantages. Its advertising in cities outnumbered opposition ads by three or even four times, while in rural areas, opposition presence was almost nonexistent. Opposition supporters and activists were especially intimidated in villages, mostly through subtle means but sometimes harshly, with groups of local hired provocateurs, closely linked to authorities, stationed outside institutions. Their presence alone (much less frequent were attacks on opposition journalists or activists) influenced voters.

Orban and Kaczynski's mix

Ivanishvili won these elections by creating a mix typical of Eastern European populists. His 'ideology' is based on nationalism, cynical use of religion, disdain for elites, the eccentricity of a 'decaying' West, promises of security, especially social, and demonization of the opposition (in Georgia, this mostly resembles the era of President Mikheil Saakashvili, a highly unpopular leader by the end, also far from democratic standards). It’s a blend reminiscent of Orbán, Kaczyński, and earlier Yanukovych in Ukraine.

Disgusting intimidation by war

Ivanishvili added to this the fact that he brazenly and brutally exploited voters' fear of war in Ukraine. His main message was resistance to the 'global party of war,' and his most popular posters combined images of peaceful Georgia with photos of destroyed Ukraine, which the entire opposition allegedly stands for.

For some (less informed) voters, the Georgian Dream also successfully hid its anti-Western sentiment under constant, now purely ritualistic, calls for integration with the EU (the Dream still uses EU stars in its election symbols). The opposition and the EU failed to unequivocally call this bluff in front of an electorate that is 75% in favor of EU integration. The opposition also lacked common decisive leaders, which distinguished Georgia from Poland and united it with Hungary (until the last election).

Today, the West must do three things. Otherwise, it will lose

Our part of the world is roughly divided 50-50 between supporters of the 'not my problem' mentality and those who want to align with the West. Between those who see opportunities in the present and those who see threats. Between those who prefer the restrained, sometimes chaotic appeal of democracy and freedom, and those for whom a strong ruler, faith (even if cynically displayed), and disdain for various 'eccentrics' are more important.

In a situation like Georgia’s, where the conservative side is backed by the authorities with their money and pressure on voters (and tacitly supported by a neighboring state), election results will not favor the Western path. In Moldova, the Western option narrowly won a week ago; without expatriates, it would have lost - and the outcome of the presidential election is still uncertain. In Ukraine, it was also 50-50 before the war, though the trend over a quarter century had been in the right direction. Such is the world we live in.

Today, the West needs to do three things: make it clear to partners like Georgia what it does not accept, such as condemning more strongly the persecution of the opposition or anti-Western rhetoric. Neither the EU nor the U.S. can show weakness towards pocket dictators.

Secondly, the West should still support cooperation where it makes sense - in Georgia’s case, with the military or an active civil society - in the hope that the winds of history will change, and the other 50% of the people will eventually prevail.

Most importantly, the West must show itself - and its neighbors to the East - that it is capable, strong, appealing, and united. It must still be that shining city on a hill in an increasingly chaotic world. If this doesn’t happen, the light of the West will fade irrevocably, and leaders like Orbán and Ivanishvili will win elections not only in the East.

Source

About the author. Marcin Bosacki, Member of the Sejm of the Republic of Poland from the Civic Coalition, election observer in Georgia

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.