Sandu's victory is Ukraine's main interest

Briefly, here are the reasons:

• Moldova has four identities (excluding Transnistria): Romanian (about 40%, largely supporting Sandu), Moldovan (up to 30%, which is Sandu's main potential base), Gagauz, and Soviet (the remaining population).

• There’s also growing Euroscepticism, fueled by fears of war and perceived weak support for Ukraine. Interestingly, this skepticism is also rising in Ukraine itself.

• Fraud and voter bribery, especially pensioners.

The focus now is on the second round. Russia will invest heavily to ensure two outcomes: Sandu's defeat or the creation of a revolutionary situation and unrest in Chisinau.

However, even in those scenarios, they won't be able to make significant moves regarding Transnistria in the medium term. Still, we may see an increase in information noise and a potential escalation in this area of information war.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.