China needs weak Russia, but it is not profitable to surrender it

Foreign Minister Qin Gang directly drew a parallel between military assistance to Ukraine and US support for Taiwan. This was already clear, but the Chinese had never said it directly before. Moreover, the Chinese leader now speaks of the desire of the West, led by the United States, to contain China, and Qin Gang accuses the Americans of wanting to create another 'NATO' in Asia. The conclusion is obvious – China has sensed a moment when rivalry with the United States can no longer be hidden – it is becoming a defining feature of the world. Everything that happens or does not happen in the world will be viewed through the prism of this rivalry. This includes Ukraine’s war with Russia. And China's linking of military assistance to Ukraine and Taiwan is just the tip of the iceberg.

“China has felt the moment when its rivalry with the United States can no longer be hidden – it is becoming a defining feature of the world.”

We are witnessing a rapidly evolving division of 'West' and 'East' and Eurasia into 'Europe' and 'Asia'. Russia can quickly move into China's sphere of influence: there are more and more Chinese cars there, the economy is being 'yuanized' and even deposits are being offered in yuan. China will try to 'secure' Russia and Kazakhstan as a resource base in all senses, and Belarus as a platform of influence – a kind of piece of Asia in Europe. We can talk about the consequences for a long time, but this creates many challenges and risks for Ukraine.

“A president like Trump is Putin's only escape from Chinese bondage, although it may be too late and China will eat him alive.”

Firstly, China needs a weak Russia, but it is not profitable to surrender it. Many European countries are heavily dependent on exports to China, and China's raising of tariffs could pose a challenge to Western solidarity, especially amid the US presidential campaign, where China will be one of the main subjects. Putin, by the way, also understands this well. For him, a president like Trump is the only salvation from Chinese bondage, although it may be too late and China will eat him alive. That certainly won't make the space to the east of us any friendlier. Russia is turning from a player into the one being played, and we will be part of this game, as long as it is our own game).

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About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Ukraine's Foreign Minister. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.