British intelligence explains why Russia will not bring nuclear submarines to Navy parade for first time

This was reported by the UK Ministry of Defense.

According to British MoD, on 12 July 2023, Russian state media reported that nuclear-powered submarines of Russia's Northern Fleet will not be taking part in the main Navy Day fleet review in St Petersburg on 30 July 2023. 

Since the current Navy Day format was established in 2017, this would be the first year that no nuclear-powered submarines have been involved.

British intelligence suggests that the change is likely primarily due to allow for maintenance and to retain availability for operations and training.

At the same time, the British Ministry of Defense believes that there is also a realistic possibility that internal security concerns since Wagner Group's attempted mutiny have contributed to the decision.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia

On June 23, it became known that Russian troops had, allegedly, launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow.

On June 24, Wagner’s fighters took control of Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, and then entered the city of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. A PMC financier said that before reaching 200 kilometers to Moscow, the Wagnerites stopped moving and returned to their field camps. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

On the same day, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

On June 27, the Federal Security Service of Russia announced that it dropped the criminal case related to the armed plot, in which Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was involved. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Wagner mercenaries would hand over heavy equipment to the regular Russian army.

On the same day, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, the Wagner mercenaries who arrived with him would not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed there.

On July 3, the Russian mass media published photos taken by local residents showing the alleged Wagner camp in the Mogilev region of Belarus. Instead, Ukrainian intelligence noted that Prigozhin is unlikely to move all the fighters to Belarus and will not be there permanently. Apparently, it is about overturning part of the Wagner.

On July 6, Lukashenko announced that the Wagner fighters are in their field camps, and  Prigozhin is in Russia. On July 10, Peskov said that 5 days after the mutiny, Putin met with Prigozhin in the Kremlin.

During the mutiny in Russia, some of the mercenaries of Wagner's private military company reached the Voronezh-45 base, a Russian nuclear weapons storage site, according to the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

Read more on the events here.