Espreso. Global

Avdiivka may become second Bakhmut in terms of Russian losses. Weekly military results with Serhiy Zgurets

21 October, 2023 Saturday

The Russian troops resumed massive attacks around Avdiivka using armored vehicles. These attacks resulted in heavy losses on their part. Over 120 tanks and armored personnel carriers were destroyed in one day, which is a very large indicator of the Ukrainian forces' effective work

Russian troops continue offensive actions around Avdiivka

Avdiivka could become the second Bakhmut in terms of Russian losses. Because we remember very well how the Russians' 'cannon fodder' assaults around Bakhmut ended. In particular, the destruction of the Wagner troops and a large number of Russian personnel. Now the situation around Avdiivka is really being repeated in this context. We know that the first armored assaults by Russian troops took place on October 10, then after significant losses there was a pause and the use of small groups. Just yesterday and the day before yesterday, they resumed massive attacks using armored vehicles. Such attacks have led to heavy losses for the Russian forces. More than 120 tanks and armored personnel carriers were destroyed in one day, which is a very large indicator of the effective work of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The loss of personnel is also impressive. In one day, the Ukrainian troops eliminated over 1,300 invaders. It is worth noting that the USSR suffered almost identical losses in the war with Finland, when the Soviet army lost more than 120,000 soldiers in 100 days. Such losses are completely satisfactory for Ukraine. This was confirmed by President Zelenskyy in a conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, commenting on the situation near Avdiivka.

War map in the Avdiivka sector as of October 20.


Reasons behind the heavy losses of the Russian equipment

The Russian army began the active phase of the war against Ukraine with more than 3,000 tanks. That is over 5,000 destroyed tanks reported by the General Staff, which is the entire Russian stockpile that it had for this war. These are samples of armored vehicles that were restored and produced during the war. The attacks on Avdiivka showed that assault columns can be seen from a distance of about 10 kilometers. It was at this distance that these columns began to be destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. Then they approached Ukraine's minefields, where they also suffered losses. And finally, the work of Ukraine's anti-tank weapons and FVP drones destroyed the rest of Russia's armored vehicles. This combination is exactly what gives Ukraine high rates of destruction of Russian equipment. Thus, tanks, and especially armored columns, are very vulnerable without air support. However, it is worth emphasizing that such conclusions are also typical for Ukraine's offensive actions. Because when Ukrainian soldiers launched the first attacks in the South and ran into the invaders' minefields, they were unable to advance deep into the occupied territories. Therefore, the approach to using armored vehicles for offensives has been changed.


The effect of ATACMS missiles on the course of hostilities

The supply of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine is very positive news for Ukraine. We have prepared a fairly high-quality infographic that shows the location of individual airfields that are subject to ATACMS strikes with a range of more than 160 km. The infographic also shows the radius of impact of Atacms with a range of over 300 km. It is important to emphasize that after ATACMS strikes on airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk, the Russian military is forced to relocate its aviation as far away as possible. The effect of ATACMS may not be felt immediately. However, the gradual use of these systems against Russian targets will be significant. This effect can be compared to the first use of Himars MLRS. The main question is the number of ATACMS that the United States will supply to Ukraine. So far, only 20 missiles are being discussed, which is critically low. However, Foreign Minister Kuleba's statement that ATACMS will continue to be supplied looks more optimistic.

As for the total number of these missiles in the United States, more than 400 of them were produced in the cluster version. Lockheed Martin itself annually produces over 500 missiles of this type for foreign customers. Therefore, Ukraine hopes that the arsenal of ATACMS in the Armed Forces will be actively replenished.


Intensification of fighting on the left bank of the Dnipro River

The situation on the Left Bank of the Dnipro is very interesting. The dynamics of the fighting has increased over the past few days. We are talking about Ukraine's troops acting with greater intensity and on a wider front. There is information that Russia has begun to redeploy certain units to this area to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from developing offensives. It is very optimistic to say that Ukraine's army is able to provide powerful crossings from the right to the left bank of the Dnipro. However, the Russian enemy is nervous, trying to change the situation, which affects the mood of the militants. Also, the actions of Ukraine's marine units on the left bank are restraining Russia's reserves, which they have been trying to constantly transfer to the Zaporizhzhia front. Therefore, in any case, the situation on this section of the front is changing. However, it is difficult to predict the extent to which these changes will affect the entire frontline.

War map in Kherson region as of October 20.


Situation in the Zaporizhzhia and Lyman-Kupyansk directions

The main efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction remain unchanged. Active hostilities are currently taking place in the direction of Novoprokopivka and from Robotyne towards Verbove. The day before yesterday, the spokesman for the Tavria group of troops said that there was an advance of one kilometer. I think this is the area west of Verbove. This suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are continuing their offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction, while the Russian troops are trying to ensure maximum defense. The situation is similar in the Lyman-Kupyansk sector. Of the 90 attacks by the Russian invaders over the past day, 40 occurred in this area. There is no Russia's advance in this area, but their activity is very noticeable.

War map in the Zaporizhzhia direction as of October 20.

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