'Association of losers' in vain awaiting Ukraine to fall

China, whose leader Xi Jinping, during the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, actually blessed Russian dictator Putin for the war with Ukraine, is now trying its best to publicly voice its neutral position. Thus, the Chinese influential newspaper Global Times, which is the English-language version of the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, published an article with the telling title "Russia-Ukraine conflict 'may escalate' as US, NATO hype 'spring offensive' ahead of 1-year anniversary". And the subtitle was “China to mediate from a neutral position when US adds obstacles to Russia-Ukraine talks”.

Its author, Beijing-based Global Times reporter Wang Qi, begins his article as follows: 

“The Russia-Ukraine conflict is sliding into escalation and war of attrition, with the risks of both direct NATO involvement and Russia's use of tactical nuclear weapons on the rise, Chinese experts warned, following US and NATO hype of a Russian "spring offensive" and Ukraine's counterattack as the one-year mark of the conflict's beginning draws near. With signs of a possible end to the military conflict still appearing distant, experts called to deescalate the situation before more spillovers emerge.”

Obviously, the author, who was tasked with frightening Ukraine, America, and Europe with the use of 'nuclear weapons' and 'additional consequences', is simply obliged to do so publicly, imitating Russian propagandists who explain to Putin's subjects on their TV shows every day that it is simply impossible to win against a nuclear power.

“The despotic regimes of Russia and China cannot trust each other, and have now become mere situational allies. Xi Jinping is using Putin as a battering ram against the United States, hoping to weaken his opponent as much as possible before making a final decision on Taiwan.”

The despotic regimes of Russia and China cannot trust each other, and have now become mere situational allies. Xi Jinping is using Putin as a battering ram against the United States, hoping to weaken his opponent as much as possible before making a final decision on Taiwan.  

At the same time, totalitarian systems are predictably unreliable, as they are run by people who have almost everything locked up. And laws, both in the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, are only a tool to strengthen the power of the rulers. First, they change the rules on the fly to suit the purpose of those in power, and then use demagoguery to 'explain' why they did it and for what purpose.

Obviously, neither Moscow nor Beijing expected such a course of the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine, so now Chinese experts are forced to call for 'de-escalation', on the Kremlin's terms, of course. It is possible that Putin himself now regrets his decision to invade Ukraine, but no one will be able to take it back. The time of reckoning is slowly but steadily approaching.

Figuratively speaking, Putin is like a bully who has attacked someone smaller than himself, not taking into account the fact that the victim could be helped. And now, when this bully is being beaten, he begins to say: "If you give me what I want, I will let you stop beating me."

“Putin is like a bully who has attacked someone smaller than himself, not taking into account the fact that the victim could be helped. And now, when this bully is being beaten, he begins to say: “If you give me what I want, I will let you stop beating me.””

At the beginning of the so-called 'special operation', Putin probably coordinated his plans for Ukraine with Xi Jinping, who approved them, assuming that the Russian Federation would easily overcome Ukraine. That would have undermined the prestige of the United States and the West and handed the keys to Taiwan's gates to Xi Jinping. But instead, it turned out that Russian troops are unable to advance, the Western world has shown its collective strength, and Taiwan is much further away from Xi Jinping's hands than before the war began.

Wang Qi continues: “Zhao Huirong, an Eastern European studies expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that the US and NATO, by hyping a Russian "spring offensive" and Ukraine's counterattack, are preparing for an escalation of the military conflict and rallying allies.

An escalation and spillover effect seems inevitable at a time when neither side is willing to compromise, Zhao said, noting that the inflection point of the military conflict has not yet arrived.

NATO will be getting increasingly involved into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zhao said. "In fact, NATO is already there in intelligence, training soldiers, supplying weapons, except for the final step of sending troops directly.”

For Ukraine, a 'compromise with Moscow' can only mean that it withdraws from all the occupied Ukrainian territories, and then it can negotiate how Russia will pay reparations to Ukraine. Yes, and only then. And as for NATO, why not repeat the mantra of Putin's propagandists that "Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with NATO, and that is why it is not succeeding with Ukrainians." It seems that both Russia and China are being dictated to by a common center on how to present information about this terrible war.

“For Ukraine, a 'compromise with Moscow' can only mean that it withdraws from all the occupied Ukrainian territories, and then it can negotiate how Russia will pay reparations to Ukraine. This is the only way.”

Putin is now so crazy that his irrationality poses a real danger to the world. Beijing cannot help but realize this. However, the 'association of losers' is waiting in vain for Ukraine to fall. The Russian Federation is now in terminal condition, and China has already passed the point of peak economic growth. With its population about to enter a period of dramatic aging, followed by an irreparable decline, and major problems with an over-expanded real estate market that is on the verge of collapse.

Today, China is becoming more and more like Japan in the late 1980s. Its economy is the weakest it has been in more than a generation. And although it is not yet a recession, the 'golden age' of the People's Republic of China is clearly coming to an end.

Putin's war in Ukraine has only exacerbated China's economic problems by raising the cost of food and energy, which significantly worsens the state of the family budget for most ordinary Chinese consumers. The price of rice alone, for example, increased by 20 percent in 2022. And this is causing increasing discontent among the Chinese population, which Xi Jinping must pay close attention to, as it affects his own popularity and, ultimately, the sustainability of his power. Thus, the economic consequences of Putin's war have negative political outcomes for Xi Jinping, both in China and in the international arena.

“Today, China is becoming more and more like Japan in the late 1980s. Its economy is the weakest in more than a generation. And although it is not yet a recession, the "golden age" of the People's Republic of China is clearly coming to an end.”

However, this does not matter to 'Ukraine expert' Wang Qi. He cites Yang Jin, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that in a state of stalemate and attrition, the "spring offensive" and "counterattack" may be more of a psychological contest. "Soldiers on both sides are exhausted and need morale boost."

It is not clear whom he wants to convince. After all, it is Putin's terrorist groups that have invaded Ukrainian territory that have low morale. And it is they who are suffering losses in manpower and are already experiencing a shortage of ammunition and military equipment. The Ukrainian army has high morale and is motivated to win because it is defending its homeland and the freedom of its people. China, on the other hand, wants to push Ukraine to surrender on the Kremlin's terms, and its information service does not even hide this.

In the Global Times, Yang Jin goes on to proclaim another 'scarecrow' for Ukrainians: “Russia, as a military power, is not going to allow itself to be a loser, and Russia does have the means to make sure that it does not lose, for example, in the worst-case scenario, that some weapons of mass destruction could be used.”

But it doesn't matter what the Russian Federation can afford or not. Putin voluntarily decided to invade Ukraine. And the Americans have long ago explained to him what would happen if Russia dared to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Therefore, when talking about possible consequences, it is necessary to take into account the worst-case scenarios for the Kremlin. The Kremlin has gone too far in its geopolitical 'great power' games, thinking that the West will get tired and refuse to support Ukraine.

“It does not matter what the Russian Federation can afford or not. Putin voluntarily decided to invade Ukraine. And the Americans have long ago explained to him what would happen if Russia dared to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Therefore, when talking about possible consequences, it is necessary to take into account the worst-case scenarios for the Kremlin.”

It is worth noting that outside of China, Russia is seen as the problem, not the United States or the West. And China is seen as Russia's main ally. In most countries of the world, the Russian Federation is recognized as an aggressor and the cause of rising food and energy prices and, in general, the main destabilizing force in the world. Therefore, most of the international community negatively perceives China as an ally of Russia.

And it's strange to see China, which pretends to be neutral, clearly taking Putin's side in diplomatic speeches and the press. At a time when only the Russian dictator can end the war in Ukraine by withdrawing his troops from our territories. But for some reason, Beijing wants "peace" on the Kremlin's terms and never tires of talking about it.

Despite the fact that things are going from bad to worse for Putin on the battlefield in Ukraine, he stubbornly clings to his insane idea of destroying the Ukrainian state. The Russian troops in Ukraine are degraded and demoralized, but Moscow hopes that some miracle will happen and suddenly it will be able to realize all of Putin's geopolitical ideas in a flash.

“Putin's Russia has become practically a vassal of China, and it can only rely on China now. The PRC also supports the 'axis of evil' organized by Moscow – 'Syria-Iran-Venezuela-North Korea'”

Putin's Russia has become practically a vassal of China, and it can only rely on China now. The PRC also supports the 'axis of evil' organized by Moscow – Syria-Iran-Venezuela-North Korea. Although Beijing does not yet dare to openly oppose the United States and the collective West, China has been constantly demonstrating its position that “Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not an act of aggression in itself” by all its actions regarding Russia's war in Ukraine.

But supporting Putin is a bad choice for China. It seems that China and Russia deserve each other and will always remain in their positions as enemies of the West. However, while friendship with Putin is unlikely to critically weaken Xi Jinping's position at home, he should pay attention to his image on the international stage. Because the time has come when being Putin's friend is not only politically toxic, but also economically very unprofitable.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.