Ukraine policy at stake: Trump’s advisors push competing agendas

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

To influence Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine, a variety of forces around him play a role. These forces fall into three categories: inner, middle, and outer circles.

The inner circle consists of people who regularly engage with Trump in person, such as the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, with the Secretary of Defense having a secondary role. For Ukraine, having figures like Mike Pompeo or Robert O’Brien in these roles would be favorable, as they are considered 'pro-European' and support Ukraine. Competing with them, however, is an 'Asia-focused' faction—led by figures like Elbridge Colby and Richard Grenell—who prioritize U.S.-China relations over European issues. While they don’t oppose aid to Ukraine outright, they see it as a lower priority for the U.S. Lastly, there’s a group of isolationists, like Bill Hagerty, who are staunchly against any support for Ukraine. Among other unpredictable figures are J.D. Vance and Elon Musk, whose influence could sway Trump toward a more isolationist stance.

The middle circle includes individuals with positive connections to Trump, though they are less frequently in contact. Figures like Boris Johnson, Mark Milley, Giorgia Meloni, and Andrzej Duda could potentially advocate for Ukraine by urging Trump to reconsider his stance. However, Viktor Orban, a close Trump ally, could undermine these efforts by reinforcing Trump’s isolationist tendencies. Changes in Germany’s leadership could also impact this group’s influence if new leaders push for a pro-Ukraine position.

The outer circle includes pro-Ukraine Republicans who lack direct influence but keep avenues open through their roles. Known figures in this circle include Mitch McConnell, Mike Turner, and Don Bacon, among others.

In summary, while there are forces capable of influencing Trump on Ukraine, success is uncertain. Initial indicators to watch for would be if figures like Pompeo or O’Brien actively campaign for positions of influence.