AFU control all Russian logistics in south, and Russia trying to expand front line near Donetsk. Serhiy Zhurets column

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces operated on the left bank of the Dnipro River

Regarding the landing of Ukrainian units on the left bank of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region (particularly, Oleshky settlement and Kinburn Spit), I think that Special Operations Forces have been operating there and for a fairly short period of time. Establishing a base there requires reliable logistics routes supported by artillery. This is quite a risky idea. I think that it was the work of the Special Operations Forces, and next we should wait to see other approaches to getting the enemy out of the left bank.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine control all Russian logistics in the south

Russian troops are in a quite difficult position, primarily because the liberation of Dnipro’s right river bank provides a new opportunity for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish control fire over the enemy group. Oleksiy Hromov, the deputy chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff, said that Ukrainian forces had established fire control over the entire area of ​​the left bank, including Crimea. Barrel artillery (range 30-40 km) and HIMARS (80 km) allow them to control all the main logistics routes that supply Russian troops.

The Russian army is transferring its forces to Melitopol in fear AFU will choose starting an offensive from Zaporizhzhia as the main approach to the liberation of the south. I think that this will not happen now and our General Staff will not be moving forward in such an obvious manner. The dynamics are such that even without these relocations, we can see destroyed bridges. Essentially, fire control already works quite effectively. I think that the General Staff will keep its approach of thinning enemy defenses by establishing fire control over them in other areas of the front as well.

Russian troops are trying to expand their offensive line in Donetsk region

Russian troops have launched as many as 500 attacks on the Donetsk region over a week. This applies to both Avdiivka and Maryinka, well-fortified settlements near Donetsk. From there, the enemy tries to move to these points to push back our defenses. Both Maryinka and Avdiivka are holding their ground; Russian troops cannot advance there. The only success they have had is in Opytne, where they have managed to break in and are trying to gain a foothold. Maryinka, although under fire, is holding up well due to a well-constructed line of defense and fortifications.

Now the enemy focuses its main effort on breaking through Pavlivka to Vuhledar. There was news that Pavlivka was supposebely captured by the enemy, but according to the latest information, it was divided in 2 control zones. The enemy tries to gain a foothold in the northern part of Pavlivka, but comes under the fire of our artillery and weapons. Moving on to Vuhledar will be difficult for them. The distance between the settlements is just 3 km, but Vuhledar stands higher, thus providing AFU with the dominant height that allows them to destroy the enemy.

The enemy is also trying to expand its offensive line and move in other directions, in particular to Velyka Novosilka. They are trying to do this in order to move the front line from Pavlivka to Kurakhove and push AFU back in order to secure a transport corridor through Volnovakha. The zone around Donetsk will remain a hotspot. Especially since the enemy will be deploying forces there because of close proximity to mainland Russia which allows easy supply of units with manpower and equipment.

Strikes at Donetsk are a difficult task for AFU, because they have to be precise. Only with the combination of intelligence and the capabilities new systems provide, we can really destroy the enemy's warehouses and control points. Russian troops fortified Donetsk for the same reason that it is easy to supply it. They have also concentrated efforts on Maryinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, trying to push through there, to no avail, however.

Ukrainian troops will not surrender Bakhmut, it has a good line of defense. However, we should pay more attention to our forces and means. The more artillery we bring and rotate our units, which hold up perfectly in these conditions, and add more force, the further we can push the enemy away.

Fierce fighting takes place in the Luhansk region, but the front line is not moving

Makiivka, Luhansk region, is the area between Svatove and Kreminna. We try to advance from Makiivka, destroying the road connection between those 2 settlements. We are advancing to Krasnorichenske, and then we can move to Starobilsk, if there are enough forces and resources left. In this zone, the front line is not moving, but combat operations on both sides are taking place around Kreminna, Svatove, near Chervonopopivka, where we are trying to attack the enemy's positions. The enemy is trying to counterattack the Bilohorivka zone in order to draw part of Ukrainian forces away from Kreminna. The front line does not change, but both sides exert a lot of effort. What is important is that thanks to the artillery, we launch strikes at Russian logistics. Starobilsk is the most important logistic hub for them. We want to break through there, and then we can cut off supply for the entire Russian group in the South.

No significant changes will occur along the contact lie: Zhurets’ estimates

Next week will be more or less moderate. The enemy cannot transfer its troops to other groups, so they will reinforce them with those who escaped from the right bank. Hostilities in the Svatove-Kreminna direction will go on, as they are now, without any victories for either side. Fighting in Maryinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut will have the same dynamics as it does now.

Currently, it is difficult for our equipment to move on the ground due to weather, so I think there will be a pause in certain advances. Next week, we will not see any significant changes on the front line. Now is the autumn period, leading to a pause and accumulation of strength, and when the ground begins to freeze and the equipment can move, that would be our opportunity for offensive actions.