Not only U.S. elections...

The development of the global geopolitical landscape hinges not just on U.S. election results but also on a range of critical factors, including:

1. How quickly the European Union and NATO’s European members (including Ukraine) can step up to take a larger role in European security as U.S. support declines. Ukraine has already made significant strides here.
2. The willingness and ability of the U.S. establishment to rebuild unity around its national interests and main foreign policy priorities.
3. The pace of China’s economic, technological, and social development, and how it aligns — or doesn’t — with the expansionist ambitions of its communist leadership.
4. The rate at which countries that aim to dismantle the current international order either strengthen or weaken, as they push for a world of heightened conflict or a return to a polarized, confrontational global structure.
5. The timing of any tests or use of tactical nuclear weapons after a long pause, and how major global players respond to such a provocation.
6. The emergence — or lack thereof — of strong national and global leaders, especially against a backdrop where many current leaders seem ill-equipped to tackle today’s and tomorrow’s threats, leaving the stage open for influential secondary figures.
7. The public's capacity to recognize the dangers of rapid social decay (even in leading nations) and populism in its worst forms.
8. Whether humanity as a whole becomes aware of planetary threats and prioritizes unity to counter or prevent them — particularly with more power being handed to rapidly advancing AI-based systems.
9. The ability to resist escalating a new arms race in space or sparking a third world war in cyberspace.
10. The arrival of an unexpected and powerful "black swan" event that could upend the entire hierarchy of current challenges and threats.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Chalyi, Ukrainian diplomat, former Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Ukraine to the USA

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.