NATO-Ukraine: on West's false assumptions

Regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO.

There is one fundamental mistake that is still inherent in Western analysts and strategists.

They believe that if Ukraine does not become a member of NATO in the coming years, there will still be a buffer zone between the Alliance and Russia that will keep a safe territorial distance from direct threats to them.

I would like to remind them that:

• First, buffer and gray zones are an unstable situation that can change very quickly. A recent example is Belarus, whose territory can no longer be considered a buffer zone for NATO countries against Russian threats;
• Second, the processes of integration into NATO and the EU can also be reversed. A recent example is Georgia, which is rapidly turning towards Russia, despite the previous war and the occupation of part of its territory;
• Thirdly, violations of international law and withdrawal from many agreements that imposed certain restrictions on the deployment of armed forces in Europe, together with new technologies, are shortening the distance. A recent example is unmanned aerial systems, which already have, in fact, a strategic range.

Therefore, if we look at these recent examples, we can draw a direct conclusion about the most likely scenario: Ukraine will either be in NATO in the coming years, or it will return to Russia, no matter how odd it may seem now. For many objective reasons, Ukraine will no longer be a buffer zone. And no concept of neutrality will help here.

Read and listen to the wise Henry Kissinger, who, despite his previous position of many years, changed his mind in the new conditions of Russia's war against Ukraine and clearly explained why: Ukraine should be inside the Alliance, not outside it!

Source

About the author. Valeriy Chaly, Ukrainian diplomat, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States.

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs.