Elections in Georgia: significance, expectations and modelling

Ukrainian Resurgam Telegram channel has analyzed the upcoming parliament elections in Georgia.

Significance

These elections are viewed as a critical 'battle for the Caucasus.' If Moscow succeeds in maintaining the current regime in Georgia, it will not only reinforce Russian influence there but also increase pressure on Armenia, where Moscow aims to displace the current government in favor of a compliant 'Karabakh clan.'

Several factors combined would make Moscow’s growing influence in the region difficult for Azerbaijan and Turkey to ignore. Consequently, this could lead to enhanced cooperation between these countries in alignment with Moscow’s interests.

If Moscow’s influence in the Caucasus diminishes, Baku and Ankara will have fewer reasons to consider Moscow’s position on regional matters. While the Georgian elections may seem like a single event, they carry a series of ripple effects.

Alongside these geopolitical stakes, Moscow faces practical risks:

1. Reputational damage. Moscow has invested heavily in promoting the narrative that "Georgia is within its sphere of influence." Should Georgia pivot toward European integration, it would deal a significant reputational blow to Moscow, particularly during the October-December period.

2. The strategic plan for a naval base in Abkhazia could be jeopardized. Russia aims to complete the Abkhazia base by mid-2025 to station fleet ships relocated from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk. Although the base operates as a Russian asset on Abkhazian territory, Ukraine has stated its intent to target Russian vessels anywhere, including at Abkhazia’s base. However, attacking an internationally recognized part of Georgia without explicit or tacit Georgian approval could spark an international incident, possibly framing Ukraine as the aggressor.

While the pro-Moscow Georgian Dream government would likely oppose such permission and fuel the scandal, the Georgian opposition could quietly approve. For Ukraine, it would suffice if Georgia’s official authorities refrain from reacting to strikes on the Russian fleet in Abkhazia. Therefore, for Moscow, these elections are about justifying its heavy investment in the Abkhazia base as a means of protecting its fleet under international law.

Expectations

The Georgian Dream has sustained an electoral paradox for some time—coming to power on pro-European promises while aligning with Moscow and yet retaining political dominance because many Georgians didn’t see the Georgian Dream as a pro-Moscow party. Despite 65-70% of Georgians favoring European integration, many still supported GM for various reasons.

Recent protests and government actions have finally shifted this balance. The GM’s support base now includes 35% of Georgians favoring "friendship with Moscow," 10% who are undecided, and 55% backing various opposition parties. According to surveys, the Georgian Dream has lost a critical 20% of support over nine months.

However, the Georgian Dream appears unwilling to rely on "fair elections" alone, with Moscow’s backing. Unlike Moldova, Georgia struggles to combat "networks," bribery, and “imported militants,” creating a high risk of widespread electoral fraud.

Pro-government media outlets are already promoting a narrative of victory for the Georgian Dream, with projections nearing a "constitutional" majority. The Georgian Dream is actively working to legitimize these results in advance, aiming to convince citizens that the election outcome will be fair and natural.

Ultimately, the opposition’s options are limited. 

Either the Georgian Dream’s results will be so poor that blatant fraud would require extreme measures, like a "public shutdown of the Central Election Commission," or the elections could ignite mass protests akin to the EuroMaidan.