Czech elections may change Europe’s political landscape, Ukraine aid

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

Critical election with far-reaching consequences

As political landscapes across Central and Eastern Europe continue to shift, the upcoming Czech parliamentary elections could have major consequences beyond the country’s borders. Andrej Babiš, the former prime minister and leader of the ANO party, is currently leading in the polls. While Romania has also seen a rise in pro-Moscow candidates, the Czech situation is far more complex and could have a direct impact on European security.

Unlike in Romania, where institutional barriers may limit a pro-Kremlin leader’s influence, a Babiš-led government in Prague could immediately alter key regional dynamics. Czechia, as a parliamentary republic, gives its prime minister considerable power in shaping foreign and defense policy, making the election outcome particularly important.

How Babiš’s victory could reshape Europe

If Babiš returns to power, the consequences would extend well beyond Czechia’s borders:

• Strategic disruptions: Czechia and Poland play a crucial role in military logistics for Ukraine. A policy shift in Prague could weaken this supply chain.
• Strengthening nationalist alliances: A victory for Babiš would reinforce the Orban-Le Pen “Patriots for Europe” coalition, a group advocating for a weaker EU and closer ties with Russia.
• Regional anti-Ukraine bloc: If Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia align against Ukraine, it would not only create a hostile front but also disrupt European diplomatic structures like the Visegrad Group and the Three Seas Initiative, which have helped advance Ukraine’s interests.
• Political contagion: Leadership shifts in one country often have ripple effects across the region. A strong Babiš government could embolden Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, reinforcing their resistance to European unity and Ukraine support.

Potential paths to limit Babiš’s influence

Despite the alarming trends, there are still scenarios where a pro-Moscow shift in Czechia could be avoided or mitigated:

• Repeat of 2020? If opposition parties unite, they could stage a last-minute comeback, as they did in the previous elections, narrowly defeating Babiš’s party.
• Coalition roadblocks: Even if Babiš wins, forming a government could be a challenge. Without enough allies in parliament, he may be forced into compromises, much like when he previously had to cooperate with pro-European factions.
• Shifting regional dynamics: The most strategic approach may lie beyond Czechia itself. If political upheaval in neighboring Slovakia and Hungary weakens Fico and Orbán, Babiš would lose his key allies in the region. Unlike Orbán, he does not command absolute control over his country’s political system. If he finds himself isolated, his ability to pursue a pro-Kremlin agenda would be severely constrained.

Domino effect: why Slovakia holds the key

Regional power shifts are interconnected, and Slovakia may be the tipping point. If Fico’s government collapses, it could trigger broader political realignments:

• Slovakia’s opposition gains momentum: Current polling suggests that pro-European forces have a real chance to regain influence. Fico’s ally, Andrej Danko, is struggling to secure parliamentary representation, and even if Fico’s party retains its position, it may not have enough support to form a stable government.
• Hungary’s political turmoil: Meanwhile, in Hungary, Orbán’s party has now lost four consecutive polls to the opposition, with the gap widening. If this trend continues, early elections in 2025 could become a reality, shaking up Hungary’s political landscape.
• Impact on Czechia: A weakened pro-Russian bloc in Slovakia and Hungary would significantly limit Babiš’s ability to steer Czechia toward a similar path. If he wins but finds himself surrounded by a more pro-European environment, his room for maneuvering would shrink dramatically.

Race against time

With Czech elections set for October 2025, there is still time for strategic action. The key to limiting a potential pro-Kremlin shift in Prague may not lie within Czechia alone but in ensuring that Slovakia’s government does not survive. If Fico falls, the ripple effect could reach Hungary and, ultimately, Czechia.

This is why easing pressure on Fico now would be a mistake. His government’s survival is not just a Slovak issue—it could determine the future balance of power across Central Europe.