Without key setbacks, Ukraine could have stopped Russia already - DeepState analyst 

He shared this opinion on Espreso TV.

“We base our observations on data published by the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff regarding the intensity of combat along the front line. Based on this data, we see that since the last days of December, there has been a decline in the dynamics of assault actions. We also observe this in terms of territory—specifically, the area occupied by Russia has decreased significantly compared to December.

As a result, the enemy is currently facing certain challenges due to heavy personnel losses and overall exhaustion. Moreover, the Russian army follows the classical Soviet model, meaning they operate under strict deadlines. By the end of the year, they had specific objectives to fulfill and aggressively pursued them in December, losing many soldiers in the process. Now, they are trying to recover,” the analyst explained.

Ruslan Mykula noted that making predictions is difficult, but there has been an increase in the number of Russian soldiers surrendering.

“They (the Russians) are deliberately moving through our combat formations and attempting to surrender further behind the front lines, so they are not mistaken for active combatants. When enemy soldiers are spotted approaching, they are generally perceived as a threat—drone reconnaissance cannot immediately determine if they intend to surrender. We are now seeing more such cases.

Additionally, Russia is reshuffling units between different armies. Some Russian brigades are currently scattered, a tactic that we have often employed, and now they are being forced to adopt it as well. They are dispersing their forces to strengthen certain directions,” he said.

The analyst believes that if not for certain challenges faced by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the initiative could now be on the side of Ukrainian defenders.

“Let’s put it this way—if not for the problems that have affected the Defense Forces throughout 2023 and 2024, I believe the enemy would have already been stopped, and the initiative would have shifted in our favor. Unfortunately, these issues have set us back, and we are now forced to maintain our current position,” Ruslan Mykula stated.

• Over the past day, on January 30, there were 150 combat engagements along the Russian-Ukrainian front. In the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 71 enemy attacks.