Will Wagner PMC attack Poland?

1. Wagner does not have enough capabilities to carry out any serious operations yet. Even if they start recruiting Belarusians, it will take a relatively long period of time to have enough forces for any serious operations. And a serious operation on NATO territory would trigger Article 5. Therefore, the likelihood of something large-scale is close to zero.

2. If something does happen, it could be similar to the provocations witnessed in Shebekino, where a small detachment enters the territory of Poland or Lithuania, lingers for a day, and then withdraws. Such actions might involve individuals holding Ukrainian passports (LDPR residents) to create interference during elections and challenge the effectiveness of NATO Article 5. However, the motive behind Lukashenko's potential involvement in this remains uncertain.

3. A reverse scenario can be staged: Belarusians chase migrants to Poland or Lithuania, Poles (Lithuanians) allegedly open fire and create a picture with dozens of dead Syrians.

“4. It is possible that all this is simply a psyop, when a misleading picture is created, but instead a strike against Ukraine is being prepared. Again, there are no serious threats so far.”

But let's not forget Lukashenko's statement that the Poles want to seize western Ukraine and western Belarus. Therefore, relatively small groups of "liberators" under the flag of conditional Soviet Ukraine may soon enter the territory of Ukraine. Although I repeat once again: there are no serious threats there yet.

So far, these are just theories, and we cannot rule out that different scenarios will be involved at the same time. We just need to be prepared for different options, including their combinations.

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.