Espreso. Global

Why West views Russia’s collapse as  "worst case scenario"

2 July, 2023 Sunday

The West should think about creating special units (obviously under the auspices of the UN) that could take control of dozens of key nuclear facilities in Russia

The "collective West" was as afraid of a mercenary raid on Moscow as Putin himself; Europe and the United States considered a possible Kremlin coup to be among the "worst-case scenarios".  As a result, the Wagner soldiers did not take the Kremlin, but successfully penetrated the minds of Western leaders and are reconfiguring attitudes towards the "brave, cunning and omnipotent president of the Russian Federation". Now, our partners are scratching their heads over (previously obvious) questions:

Can Russian army guarantee the safety of nuclear weapons?

“The answer is no. Shoigu's reindeer herders could not secure a single military facility on the Wagner's path - no airfields, no control centres, no other strategic facilities. If the mercenaries had travelled in the direction of the nuclear facility instead of Moscow, they would have most likely captured it.”

Russia's nuclear arsenal includes about 4,500 weapons. A slight loss of control over any of the munitions means the risk of their free movement: previously, NATO generals could only dream of this, but now it is a reality.

The rebellion is forcing the West to change its patterns of behaviour.

In the EU and the US, there was a fear of a "nuclear" Putin, "capable of doing anything". That is why the democratic world could not accept the fact that Ukraine would win this war and Russia would lose... Putin is ready to lose even to the leader of prisoners.

Now the West has to think about creating special units (obviously under the auspices of the UN) that could take control of dozens of key nuclear facilities in Russia if the Kremlin finally becomes impotent.

Will Russia collapse?

“The collapse of Putin's regime is seen by the West as a serious threat to Europe, and the coup has made it clear: dissatisfaction with the war is high and the country is divided”

Prigozhin delivered vivid pro-Ukrainian messages about the aggressive nature of Putin's campaign, the myths of Russian propaganda such as the “Ukrainians bombed Donbas” and the fake nature of the "goals of the special military operation". For the first time, a high-profile Russian media personality disavowed the main Kremlin narratives.

Read also: Wagner was able to make Putin regime work for it

The myth of Putin's invincibility has been shattered. The Kremlin leader swallowed all the insults and humiliation from Prigozhin, granting immunity from prosecution to a person whom he had called a criminal a few hours earlier. It was the only chance to retain power.

I assume that the Kremlin avoided the storming only thanks to the efforts of Patrushev and the West, which also went to great lengths to stop the rebels. I think the contacts between the Russian and US intelligence services on that Saturday afternoon will be revealed soon. CNN has already stated that Western partners asked Ukraine not to hit Russia during that march.

Should we continue to be afraid of an inadequate swindler?

The rebellion will force our Western partners to change their attitude towards Russia. Russia’s victory strategy is to force the West to abandon its support for Ukraine, "the all-powerful leader has calculated everything and firmly controls the country". It turns out that the leader is not omnipotent, and he miscalculated in many ways.

Prigozhin's "march" was unsuccessful as a military operation, but masterful in terms of trolling the Kremlin. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counter-offensive, and the Wagner soldiers counter-trolled, which seriously injured their president.

We will soon find out whether our Western partners have managed to recover from this fear. In particular, we will hear about it at the NATO summit next month. I know for sure that the decision to invite Ukraine is still being considered, and I hope the news from Russia will play a role.


About the author. Orest Sohar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

Read also:
  • News
2023, Saturday
9 December
Russia is expanding fortifications near occupied Mariupol - mayor's adviser
Ukraine investigates over 3,000 Russian war crimes against children - Prosecutor General
UK intelligence explains why Russia attacks Snake Island with risk to crews, aircraft
Ukrainian army destroys 900 Russian soldiers, 11 vehicles, 6 tanks - General Staff
Russian army attacks Beryslav, killing one civilian, injuring another
Ukraine is deploying all reserves to hold Avdiivka: Russian fakes for December 8
Russia strengthens total control in temporarily occupied Nova Kakhovka - mayor
ISW reports active Russian attacks near Avdiivka
2023, Friday
8 December
Victorious news on 653rd day of war: aid package from Germany, Ukraine and Sweden discuss supplying Gripen fighter jets
Putin deceives Arabs from OPEC
Free navigation: International Maritime Organization to send mission to help Ukraine
Ukrainian forces repel 32 Russian attacks in Avdiivka sector, 20 in Marinka sector - General Staff
First time leading Polish politician admits Ukrainian-Polish border blockade is national security issue
Ukraine receives German Luna NG UAV: Defense Express tells more about it
Ukrainian boxer Yarchevsky killed in war with Russia
Map of fighting in Kupyansk sector
Russia amasses troops near Synkivka - Ukrainian brigade on Kupyansk sector
Olympics 2024: Russians, Belarusians allowed to compete in neutral status
How many missiles can Russia use in one attack? Aviation expert names maximum number
UAVs, grenade launchers and ammunition: Germany hands over new aid package to Ukraine
map of fighting near Avdiivka
Russian forces are increasingly using 'meat assaults' in Avdiivka sector
Russia prepares mobilization after Putin's re-election - expert Stupak
Russia stops providing medical care to Ukrainians without its passports in Luhansk region
Ukrainian parliament adopts law on national minority rights
What about US aid? Has everyone abandoned us? Are we all going to die?
Four EU trade unions call for boycott of Polish carriers due to Ukrainian border blockade
Potential impact of freezing war in Ukraine: Analysis by military expert Kovalenko
Ukrainian counteroffensive: achievements and setbacks in summer-autumn campaign
German bank will provide over EUR 24 million to create energy-efficient housing for internally displaced Ukrainians
Scandalous and dangerous decision: Ukrainian MP comments on Poland’s investigation into Operation Vistula 
Russian shelling damages frontline thermal power plant
Putin announces his intention to run for president in 2024
Russia attacks Ukraine with cruise missiles, resulting in casualties: one person killed, 8 injured in Dnipropetrovsk region
Finland refuses to extradite Petrovsky, one of leaders in Russian Rusich Group, to Ukraine
Without Kyiv's membership in NATO, civilized world will lose
Russia fears expansion of Ukrainian bridgehead on left bank of Kherson region - military expert Zgurets
Apache and Black Hawk: helicopters price and waiting time 
In Ukraine, almost 500 settlements without power due to weather, hostilities and technological failures
Destroys targets at distance up to 8 km: Zgurets tells about US VAMPIRE anti-missile system
Russia holds about 500 medics in captivity - Ukraine to OSCE
"British special forces fought near Bucha": Russian fakes compilation for December 7
More news