Where has Lukashenko gone?

For 29 years, 68-year-old Lukashenko has been sitting on the chair of power. Accordingly, what may be happening to him now (because there is no evidence, other than a reduction in activity and a general lousy appearance) - a serious illness or even death from illness - can either be beneficial for Ukraine or, on the contrary, cause undesirable consequences.

This development is beneficial because it will, of course, lead to instability. Any element of instability in a country that is an ally of our enemy is a very good thing. The undesirable consequences can be caused by Putin's logic, which has been completely unpredictable in recent years (the attack on Ukraine). Perhaps Putin is really a consistent legalist to such an extent, a supporter of strict formal observance of the law (everything must look legal), that he will wait for Lukashenko's natural departure from power (at least through a change in the Constitution)... Because in principle, given the objective status of Belarus as a 'parasitic country' in relation to Russia (because without Russian money and special prices for oil products, without Russia buying Belarusian combines it does not need instead of high-quality American or Korean ones, Belarus simply could not survive), this is an artificial economy.

“This development is beneficial because it will, of course, lead to instability. Any element of instability in a country that is an ally of our enemy is a very good thing. The undesirable consequences can be caused by Putin's logic, which has been completely unpredictable in recent years (the attack on Ukraine).”

In any other system, it would be different, like the way Putin tried to rule Ukraine through Yanukovych, the way he tries to rule Georgia through a powerful oligarchic pro-Russian lobby. That is, Putin usually tries to rule through not very strong economic ties. But Belarus is completely dependent. And yet, Putin tolerates its isolation and Lukashenko's specific behavior (which he obviously dislikes because of his excessive cunning). We do not understand this.

And there may be a possibility that if Lukashenko does die, Belarus' sovereignty will finally become nominal and the territory will be fully used for military purposes.

But the main positive point here is that nothing lasts forever. Just yesterday you were swimming in a pool, running through a potato field, and today you are being carried with a catheter from a parade to an airplane.

 Source

About the author. Oleksiy Holobutsky, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.