What will happen to Prigozhin and why is Putin silent?

The statement was made in response to the fact that the Defence Ministry decided to force all "volunteers" to enlist in the Russian armed forces.

A war for two

To begin with, Prigozhin very directly hints that Shoigu cannot raid something on his own (he directly calls him a "Tuvan degenerate"). Who is behind Shoigu then? As strange as it may sound, no one so far. For now, it's a war between two. But there are a lot of predators walking around who would like to raid Wagner and get Shoigu's chair.

Why did Prigozhin betray Surovikin?

In his speech, Prigozhin states that he only followed Surovikin's orders and that the latter is the only intelligent general. There may be three reasons for such an accentuated mention: first, Surovikin already has tense relations with Gerasimov, and it is possible that he may be pushed out along with Wagner, and this is a preemptive move. Secondly, it can be a field for maneuver when the time comes. In case of emergency, Surovikin-Prigozhin can be "negotiated" and the first will promise to fulfill some demands, and the latter will be able to get out of the situation without losing face. And the third option: Prigozhin is simply cynically using Surovikin.

Making Prigozhin a governorYesterday, there was a version that Prigozhin would be offered the post of governor in order to put him in a stall. As for the stall, we have seen the example of Saakashvili, when the governorship did not prevent him from saying whatever he wanted. One can only imagine what corruption schemes governor Prigozhin will talk about if the rumors about his governorship are at least somewhat true.

Being silent and waiting in the corner is a characteristic feature of Putin. Being a wimp from birth, he is, among other things, afraid to make decisions

Why is Putin still silent?

Being silent and waiting in the corner is a characteristic feature of Putin. Being a wimp from birth, he is, among other things, afraid to make decisions. And he is afraid to part with people. But there's another thing here: the Prigozhin-Shoigu conflict was conceived, like a lot of similar conflicts, as a story of people pitting themselves against each other, gnawing at each other and waiting for Putin to resolve the situation. This time, Putin would need someone to easily troll the generals, so that their energy would be spent not on court games, but on war with each other. And here the situation is no longer normal. A very unpleasant decision has to be made for Putin when he is given an ultimatum: either one or the other. He, because of his psychotype, does not accept such ultimatums. That's why he's pausing.

Prigozhin vs. Kadyrov

A few months ago, Kadyrov, who had begun to play his political games and even started to try on the uniform of the National Guard chief, was kicked back to Chechnya. In a rather harsh manner, he was pointed to his place and accepted these rules of the game.

The current situation with Prigozhin is a chance for Kadyrov to get back on the national agenda. Moreover, he has taken on the role of the king's dog, which barks at those who interfere with the king

The current situation with Prigozhin is a chance for Kadyrov to get back on the national agenda. Moreover, he has taken on the role of the king's dog, which barks at those who interfere with the king. But Kadyrov's first "bark" was too primitive, and he received a response that Prigozhin residents remembered the First and Second Chechen wars and which side Kadyrov's tribe fought on. Prigozhin began to speak openly about the opposition between Russians and Chechens in the current reality.

If we put aside the political noise, there is a high probability that Chechens and Wagnerians may become competitors in the Russian criminal world in the near future. This should be monitored, of course, but no one has canceled the interethnic criminal redistribution of Russia. Prigozhin was the first to speak out loudly about his frustration with the dominant role of Chechens in this world.

What will happen next?

The system is structured in such a way that no one understands what to do without Putin's instructions, who does not want to make any decisions yet. The ideal solution is to kill Prigozhin. But there is no command from Putin.

Nevertheless, Shoigu himself, so to speak, has given Putin an ultimatum: this issue must be finally resolved by 07.1. To be more precise, it was Putin himself, through Shoigu's mouth, who conveyed his greetings to Prigozhin and said that by 08.1 you must end this circus.

Even after handing over his prisoners to the Ministry of Defence, he doesn’t lose any political opportunities to criticize the Ministry of Defence (every day he will tell how someone was sent to certain death, for example).

What will Prigozhin do? 

As I wrote above, he has a backup option of transferring some of the Wagnerians to the Defence Ministry under Surovikin's personal guarantees that all conditions will be met. But at the same time, we shouldn't forget that the military capabilities of the Wagnerites are relatively small now. And even after handing over his prisoners to the Ministry of Defence, he doesn’t lose any political opportunities to criticize the Ministry of Defence (every day he will tell how someone was sent to certain death, for example).

After 08.1, he will still remain in politics. And here we come back to the main point: will Putin order the liquidation (arrest, as I wrote about a few days ago) of Prigozhin? And the answer is simple: as long as Putin doesn’t feel personally threatened, he won’t. For him, Prigozhin is still part of the system of balances (in relation to the Defence Ministry and Kadyrov, above all).

So the show must go on. Nobody obviously paid for the black swans.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don’t always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.