No major change after Trump’s inauguration, but possible pause in hostilities in Ukraine - analyst

He shared this opinion during the roundtable discussion “A New Stage of the War with Russia: In Search of Security Guarantees for Ukraine. An Internal Plan for Resilience," held on December 16.

Yizhak recalled that during the Balkan wars, the U.S. took a more radical approach: force was used first to establish a balance of power, and only then were stabilization and negotiations pursued.

"Right now, we’re hearing that there might be a pause in fighting, but unlike the Balkans, it won't involve punishing the aggressor. It might involve pressure, potentially with China's help, followed by the deployment of European stabilization forces until a broader peace agreement is reached. However, we can’t allow a situation where documents replace real action, like what happened with the Budapest Memorandum," he said.

The expert also pointed out that paper agreements only hold weight when there’s an organization to guarantee responses to them. He emphasized the need for clear balances and processes that trigger guaranteed actions from Ukraine’s partners.

Yizhak suggested that if a pause in hostilities happens, it should be used to address urgent military issues, such as improving command structures, staffing, weapons supply, defense production, and strengthening deterrence forces.

He emphasized that Ukraine's international partners can help provide a balance of power. "If we have a trained army of a million soldiers, we can secure weapons and guarantees. But if we only have 300,000, that balance is not there," he said.

Yizhak also stressed that, during any potential pause, not only military issues should be addressed but also political and economic processes must be initiated. "The winner will be the one who solves problems of internal stability and defense. A pause is a ‘window of opportunity’ to solve main issues within the army, society, and defense capabilities," he concluded.

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