Espreso. Global
OPINION

Putin is too old to build regime 2.0

1 March, 2024 Friday
21:40

Putin's rather boring speech unexpectedly sparked a lively discussion on one point. It was about replacing the old elites of the 1990s with new ones that grew up on a 'special military operation'

Among liberal Russians, interpretations about a new purge and so on immediately began. So, I want to express my opinion, which can be summarized in one message: there will be no global purge. Putin is too old to build a regime 2.0.

True, these elections, as the election of a lifetime emperor, will lead to a change in the country's governance system, where all previous agreements with the elites will be renewed, the Kremlin towers will lose their current powers, and the system will be based on 15-20 elders, each of whom will fight for the right to be a gray cardinal in a particular area of the economy (I will describe the model and who they are in more detail in a study to be released in the second half of March, but the basic difference from the Soviet political bureau is that there is no consensus, at least at the first stage, and all decisions will be made by Putin).

Returning to Putin's statement about purging the elites, we need to understand what his statement means:

  • nullification of the agreement with the Family (Yeltsin). The main reason is that they were declared traitors to the people (in general, the concept of traitor will become very important in the newest lexicon of the Russian Federation);
  • partial nationalization and removal of undesirable businesses (uncontrolled by Putin's inner circle) (following the example of Chelyabinsk billionaire Antipov). This is necessary not only to purge the remnants of theoretically possible opposition financiers, but also to be able to feed the new young generation that will now start a new war for the redistribution of property. Famous names may be involved in this process;
  • creating a narrow stratum of politicians, mostly at the regional level, from among those who are fighting to demonstrate the work of social elevators.

But all these changes will not affect the key players who are now part of Putin's inner circle. At least at the first stage.

P.S. Of course, the topic of the Russian narrative of negotiations and peace is a separate topic, but I would like to draw your attention to how the Russian-controlled "opposition" and, above all, Sobchak, have unanimously said that Putin's message is about peace.

This idea is one of the most important in order to understand how the government will try to break away 7-10% of the relatively monolithic 23% of Russians who say they reject the war and Putin. I will repeat now only what I have been saying for the past few months: the main narrative of Russian propaganda: "Peace-loving Russia wants to negotiate, but Ukraine does not." And when we laugh at the Carlson and Ruriks, we have to remember that these are not only Putin's historical delusions, but also part of the information war.

Source 

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Sunday
21 April
20:16
Ukrainian Defense Forces foil 2 Kh-59 guided missiles, repel 50 Russian attacks in six sectors
19:40
OPINION
Revolutionary step. Denmark to finance Ukrainian weapons production
19:21
Germany seeks additional air defense for Ukraine
19:01
Exclusive
U.S. aid to Ukraine: General predicts immediate impact on course of war
18:22
Updated
Ukrainian Navy damages Russian rescue ship Kommuna in Sevastopol
17:40
Russia attacks Odesa region's port area with ballistic missiles
17:06
German regions no longer want to accept Ukrainian refugees
16:18
Russia attacks Ukrayinsk, Donetsk region with Smerch missiles, killing one and injuring four
15:46
No Russian presence in Chasiv Yar – Ukrainian Armed Forces
15:07
Exclusive
Mayor of Russian-held Nova Kakhovka reveals harsh reality of life under occupation
14:39
How much of the $61 billion U.S. aid package will directly arm Ukraine?
14:06
Russian troops use Avdiivka tactics near Chasiv Yar – British Intelligence
13:33
Exclusive
Does Ukraine need F-16s at this stage of war? Aviation expert Dolintse explains
12:58
Ukraine's environment suffers UAH 2.4 trillion in damage due to Russian aggression
12:20
Bakhmut sector: Weather favors active Russian assaults with armored vehicles
11:45
Russia will escalate attacks ahead of U.S. aid to Ukraine, warns ISW
11:15
New Ukraine aid package will contribute to U.S. security – Pentagon chief
2024, Saturday
20 April
20:35
Ukrainian army repels 25 Russian attacks in Bakhmut sector over last day
20:11
Ukraine receives L-39 attack aircraft from Lithuania
19:44
Latvian citizen detained on charges of planning sabotage in Ukraine - media
19:19
Exclusive
Russian opposition is waiting for Ukraine's victory to start acting - MP Mezentseva
18:55
Ukraine is interested in Brazil's active participation in first Global Peace Summit - Zelenskyy
18:30
OPINION
Destroying Russian refineries is best sanctions policy
18:02
West has 'double standards' on air defense for Ukraine, says Zelenskyy
17:37
It will come with threats, tanks: Podolyak on inviting Russia to Normandy landings anniversary
17:12
Ukrainian forces kill Russian war correspondent Yeromin
16:48
Exclusive
Offensive planned by Russia for May-June has begun - Ukrainian major
16:25
OPINION
United States should be faced with choice
16:02
Countries close to Russia doubt expediency of war in Ukraine - Scholz
15:39
Exclusive
How relatives search for missing soldiers in Ukraine
15:14
Exclusive
Political analyst Musienko assesses Lavrov's statements on negotiations
14:56
Updated
Russia attacks Kharkiv region with bomb, killing and injuring civilians
14:48
Russia forcibly deports Ukrainians from Dnipro coast in occupied Kherson region
14:25
UK intelligence analyzes downing of Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber
14:02
Review
Russia's attempts to advance in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia regions. Weekly military results by Serhiy Zgurets
13:19
Exclusive
Military comments on statements about Ukrainian army's counteroffensive in 2025
12:55
Russia's war in Ukraine kills at least 545 children, injures 1,298 more
12:34
Updated
Ukrainian special services attack facilities in 8 Russian regions, damaging energy sector
12:27
Updated
Russia loses 8 tanks, 20 artillery systems, 750 soldiers per day - General Staff
12:00
French mercenaries killed in Sloviansk: new Russian fake
More news