Ukraine's population by 2037 and life after war. Forecast of Institute of Demography

This was announced by Oleksandr Hladun, PhD, Deputy Director for Research at the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, in an interview with Espreso correspondent Valeria Pashko.

According to Hladun, demographic problems in Ukraine have been accumulating for years.

"You can see the decline in the population of Ukraine. We had a maximum of 52 million in 1992, and after that the population has been constantly decreasing. It's not connected, it's just a coincidence that it started after the year of independence. Because these trends were laid down in the 70s and 80s of the last century. Starting in 1991, the number of deaths constantly exceeded the number of births, and this led to a decline in the population. One of the important indicators is the total fertility rate. This is the number of children that one woman gives birth to on average during her lifetime. In order to avoid population decline due to natural factors, this coefficient should be equal to about 2.1-2.2," said Oleksandr Hladun.

The deputy director of research at the Institute of Demography explained that in Ukraine, this coefficient in 2021 was approximately 1.1.

"That is, it is half as much as needed. The population is affected by mortality and life expectancy. We have about 10 years less than in Europe. The sharp decline in life expectancy in 2021 is the impact of the coronavirus, which has come in second place after cardiovascular disease as a cause of death. It's a difficult situation, but everything has been changing gradually. It took the war for everyone to pay attention to demographics, population size, its structure, migration and fertility processes," Hladun said.

The Institute also noted that the number of Ukrainian refugees staying outside the territory of Ukraine around the world is now just over 6 million.

"We have predicted the number of population decline. We estimate that by the beginning of 2037 there will be 30-31 million people. Moreover, we made the forecast for the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea and certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied until February 24. We made separate estimates for these areas and used Russian statistics for Crimea, and they were also adjusted to reflect the available information. As for the number of deaths in relation to births, we believe that this ratio will be, relatively speaking, in favor of the dead. That is, the death rate will exceed the birth rate until 2037, and we will not change this situation."

Hladun also gave a forecast for the total fertility rate.

"It will not reach the required level at all. In the near medium term, it will be at 1.3, which is less than necessary. This is slightly worse than in Western Europe, where the rate is 1.7-1.8. They also do not provide for natural recovery. Life expectancy in Ukraine will gradually increase, and this will begin immediately after the war is over. We will reach the following situation: men are 68 years old, women are slightly less than 68 years old. How will this affect the population in general and the age structure of the population? Because the functioning of the state is affected by the number of people and the age structure," says Hladun.

The deputy director of research at the Institute of Demography also spoke about how the war will affect the situation.

"According to our estimates, the war will lead to an even greater deformation of the gender and age structure of the population, and this is also a challenge. We will not change this due to natural factors, and therefore we should take seriously the migration policy of returning our citizens and attracting foreigners to the labor market or for permanent residence... The return of people to Ukraine will depend not only on abstract policies, but also on the availability of housing that has been destroyed, especially in the eastern regions, the situation on the labor market (and regional labor markets), and on the policies of the countries where our citizens are now staying," said Hladun.

• On July 27, Stefan Khmil, a professor at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, noted that the state pays little attention to the problem of preserving and reviving the gene pool of the Ukrainian nation.

• Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, said that in 2022 the birth rate in Ukraine did not decline critically, but it will drop significantly in 2023.