Ukraine's counteroffensive threatens Putin directly

The first successes of the Ukrainian military, which are still being reported incompletely from the frontlines of the Russian-Ukrainian war, show that the counteroffensive is slowly gaining momentum. And it will take some time for it to gain strength and the necessary power.

The Russian Federation, after Moscow's defeat in Ukraine, will never again be able to claim the status of a global superpower, and at best will remain a geographically large state ruled by a mad dictator for a short time. This time may be very short-lived, because when the Russians blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, Putin crossed a red line after which he will be able to conduct his international activities only in The Hague.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated many good moves that were unexpected by many observers. The Ukrainian military is making serious progress near Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops are now effectively operating according to NATO standards, their methods being to launch simultaneous trial mini-offensives in a large number of places, while Putin and his accomplices were waiting for one or two major offensives. It is a brilliant strategy.

“The Ukrainian military is making serious progress near Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops are now effectively operating according to NATO standards, their methods being to launch simultaneous trial mini-offensives in a large number of places, while Putin and his accomplices were waiting for one or two major offensives. It is a brilliant strategy.”

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces may have fewer soldiers today, but better weapons are not their only advantage. We can also add better strategy and tactics. As well as confidence in victory, high morale and great motivation of the Ukrainian army. Putin and his criminal camarilla must have known from the very beginning that it is impossible to defeat a people who are fighting for their right to live on their land and in their state.

Putin's troops were expecting frontal attacks from the Ukrainians, but the Ukrainian military leadership is acting in a balanced and thoughtful manner. Its tactics are now more like reconnaissance by combat, when the Ukrainians have not yet launched a real attack. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are exploring Russian defenses to force the enemy to allocate reserves and withdraw rear troops into the radius of destruction. Fear and frustration will be the biggest enemy of the Russian troops, and it will get worse for them.

We can talk about a major offensive when there are videos of the successes of new Ukrainian brigades that have received military training abroad and have been able to move 50 or 100 kilometers behind the Russian frontline. Then it will be enough for them to break through in one or two places, and the remaining 90 percent of Russian fortifications will become redundant.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive raises the question of Russia's future as never before. Putin will never voluntarily step down, and the Kremlin's protraction of the war in Ukraine poses a great danger to Russian elites. After all the crimes against humanity that the Russian Federation has committed on Ukrainian soil, the Russian establishment will not be able to separate itself from them, no matter how hard it tries.

“The Ukrainian counteroffensive raises the question of Russia's future as never before. Putin will never step down voluntarily, and the Kremlin's protraction of the war in Ukraine poses a great danger to Russia's elites.”

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And after Russia's defeat, the elites will certainly face the question of not only the impossibility of keeping all their huge fortunes acquired 'honestly' but also the impossibility of finding their place in the new power structure. The structure of the Russian government will begin to crumble after Russia loses control over the occupied Ukrainian Crimea. This may also be the beginning of the end of Putin's rule.

Moreover, the dictator cannot do anything about corruption in production, which extends even to the military supply chain. One example is that the trucks that were critically important for the Russians going to war had low-quality tires. Consequently, convoys got stuck and supplies were not delivered on time.

If the Russian-Ukrainian war drags on, there will be other disruptions, such as in aircraft maintenance, as demand for spare parts will increase dramatically due to increased use, and there is nowhere to get them. The Russians have not been able to provide the new troops with enough automatic weapons or standard ammunition. They also lacked adequate communications equipment to support troop coordination.

The fact that Russia has been forced to buy artillery shells from North Korea and Iran, drones and related equipment from Tehran, and missiles from various countries indicates the extent of its production shortcomings. In addition, Russia lacks the capacity for a protracted war in Ukraine. Today's Russia is just one big strategic miscalculation after another. And the Russians have proved to themselves, the world, and history with this war that they are brutal criminals, cowards, and ignorant.

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“Russia lacks the capacity for a protracted war in Ukraine. Today's Russia is just one big strategic miscalculation after another. And with this war, the Russians have proved to themselves, the world, and history that they are brutal criminals, cowards, and ignorant.”

Moscow is afraid that a pluralistic, democratic state will continue to exist on its borders. A state that strives for the rule of law, an independent judiciary, and mostly genuine elections. Therefore, the Kremlin considers this a challenge, and reacts to it as something that threatens the existence of their top leadership - threatening the downfall of the system of state governance.

However, the real danger to the regime's existence was that almost from the very beginning of Putin's 23-year presidency, he had been harboring the idea that Ukraine was not a real state and should be annexed to Russia. And the worst thing that could have happened for him was that he started to put this idea into practice.

The dictator made many mistakes in the course of such an ill-considered realization of his desires. One of them was that he began to settle the temporarily occupied parts of Ukraine with Russians from the northern regions of the Russian Federation.

According to Putin's 'set,' most of these illegal immigrants ended up in the territory of Ukrainian Crimea. This creates a big problem for us now. According to various expert estimates, since the spring of 2014, Moscow has brought up to 1 million 'migrants' to the Crimean peninsula. Now a big problem arises: how quickly can such a large number of displaced persons return to the Russian hinterland at the same time.

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There is a nervousness among the Russian elite about the firepower of Ukrainian Western weapons, and this is leading them to fear that the land bridge that Moscow has built across southeastern Ukraine to Crimea could be severed. And after the Ukrainian army cuts the land bridge to Crimea, how long does the Kerch bridge have to stay up to allow these Russians to leave Ukrainian territory?

“There is a nervousness among the Russian elite about the firepower of Ukrainian Western weapons, and this is leading them to fear that the land bridge that Moscow has built across southeastern Ukraine to Crimea could be severed. And after the Ukrainian army cuts the land bridge to Crimea, how long does the Kerch bridge have to stay up to allow these Russians to leave Ukrainian territory?”

The smarter and more labeled ones have already begun to leave the foreign land. But this movement in the opposite direction is still clearly insufficient. Therefore, perhaps now it would be necessary to warn these 'Crimean tourists' that they have very little time left. The route through the Kerch bridge, while it is still standing, is the best way to get your things and leave. And it should not be neglected.

The civilized world will never accept Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine. However, a large part of the Russian population still does not realize the enormous damage this war has done to their own country and its place in the world. This ignorance is incomprehensible.

One way or another, the Russian-Ukrainian war has done its job. Today, Putin's regime is caught up in an internal struggle, and no one will be able to reverse this situation. Peace cannot be achieved as long as Russian troops are in Ukraine.

The Russians can try to redraw the borders as much as they want, but if they want to keep what they have already stolen from Ukrainians for a while, they will have to sacrifice many hundreds of soldiers every day, and they simply will not have time to conduct a quick general mobilization.

“The Russians can try to redraw the borders as much as they want, but if they want to keep what they have already stolen from Ukrainians for a while, they will have to sacrifice many hundreds of soldiers every day, and they simply will not have time to conduct a quick general mobilization.”

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Putin and his opponents in the Russian government are in a political stalemate; they cannot withdraw from Ukraine because the regime will finally lose its stability and begin to fall apart rapidly. But if the tyrant continues to wage war, it is only a matter of time before he can exist at all.

According to various reports, the team of the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev, has been negotiating with the West for quite some time about the possibility of removing Putin from power in one way or another. However, so far, no agreement has been reached. Patrushev's people seem to want to receive guaranteed indulgences for Russian security forces and promises that, in any case, the Russian Federation will remain in its current territorial status.

But who can give such guarantees when the centrifugal processes launched by the war have already begun in Russia, and, as in the Soviet era, it will be simply impossible to stop them. The peoples colonized by Russia are already looking for their modern national identity.

Putin has missed the time when he could have abandoned his geopolitical adventure in Ukraine without significant consequences for himself. Therefore, the collapse of the Russian Federation is inevitable. The only question is in what form and how quickly it will take place.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.