Russian Federation has zero chances of survival 

Putin benefits from dragging out the war. He is waiting for the West to either get tired of helping Ukraine or for political forces to come to power in the United States that will minimize or refuse to provide assistance to Ukrainians, forcing Kyiv to accept all of Moscow's demands, which would be tantamount to surrendering to the Kremlin.

The interim results of the year of war may be as follows: Ukraine has held out all this time without involving Western troops on the battlefield; Kyiv has not yet received sufficient military assistance necessary to clear all our territories from the invading Russian forces; some decision-makers in the United States and the European Union have not fully realized that the Russian-Ukrainian war is not a regional war, but a battle for the continued existence of democratic Western civilization; Ukraine's confrontation with the Russian Federation has shown the whole world that a totalitarian monster has matured on the territory of Russia, with which it is impossible to negotiate anything, it can only be destroyed; the necessary weapons, which were needed yesterday, were delivered late, which allowed the invaders to gain a foothold in the occupied territories, making it more difficult to drive them out; the war cannot be ended in a draw, but if Ukraine does not win this global battle against evil, its statehood can be forgotten, so we need only victory.

However, Putin's prolongation of the war has negative consequences for Moscow as well. The Russian Federation was built on a rotten foundation of systemic, officially tolerated corruption, inefficient and corrupt governance institutions, including the Russian army, and an economy that has been shaken by increasingly severe Western economic sanctions.

“The Russian National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund, which were created under Putin's leadership, were created precisely to ensure that Russia could hold out for a long time in the event of increased Western sanctions and international isolation in the event of a protracted war.”

The Russian dictator has been preparing for war with Ukraine for 20 years. The Russian National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund, which were created under Putin's leadership, were created precisely to ensure that Russia could hold out for a long time in the event of increased Western sanctions and international isolation in the event of a protracted war. And not to stabilize the economic and social situation in Russia during a possible global drop in oil and gas prices. For some reason, the West did not pay attention to the creation of these 'war funds', although it was clear from the very beginning that Putin would not care about the 'national welfare' of Russians.

A year of Russia's war in Ukraine has united the West, but it has not eliminated the differences that still exist in NATO and the European Union. For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been making constant statements and supporting Moscow in any way he can in order to achieve 'peace' on Russia's terms, leaving 20% of Ukrainian territory behind. However, despite the fact that Orban's Hungary has become the Kremlin's fifth column in Europe, no significant sanctions are applied to it in the EU. 

The war has shown that Ukraine has an army of brave and dedicated men who are examples of courage and sacrifice, but it is impossible for anyone on the European continent to behave inappropriately at the same time. Since February 24, 2022, Ukrainians have seen who has become their true ally in repelling Russian aggression, and who has tried to block the flow of modern Western weapons to the frontlines, pretending that this is not their war and it does not concern them at all.

“The rejection of Ukraine into the North Atlantic Alliance is now bearing bitter fruit. However, defeating Putin in Ukraine is the only thing that will stop Putin from attacking NATO allies, the Baltic states, and Poland. And Putin is already eyeing Moldova, and this fact should also be taken into account when deciding whether to provide more weapons to Ukrainians.”

The rejection of Ukraine into the North Atlantic Alliance is now bearing bitter fruit. However, defeating Putin in Ukraine is the only thing that will stop Putin from attacking NATO allies, the Baltic states, and Poland. And Putin is already eyeing Moldova, and this fact should also be taken into account when deciding whether to provide more weapons to Ukrainians. 

The terrible year of war for Ukraine, however, has shown that Russia's resources of resilience are far from infinite. Russia's economy, military power, and geopolitical strength will slowly but inexorably decline. These realities will remain, if not forever, then for a very long time in its deservedly very pessimistic future. It may not be long before the Russians will envy Iran with its hyperinflation and total shortage of Western-made goods, the sale of which is strictly taboo for Iranians.

Ukrainians, as well as the international community, will never forget the genocide committed by Russians in Ukraine against the civilian population: mass murder of civilians, torture, executions, rape, abduction of children, destruction of hospitals, schools, kindergartens, museums and churches by war criminals - not to mention residential buildings.

“The lessons of the Russian war are also that Western assistance cannot be seen as mere charity - it is an investment in the future of the Western world. And since the Western population remains safe and unharmed, while Ukrainians are actually fighting for them, they should appreciate the sacrifice with which Ukraine is resisting the forces of evil that must be defeated.”

The lessons of the Russian war are also that Western assistance cannot be seen as mere charity - it is an investment in the future of the Western world. And since the Western population remains safe and unharmed, and Ukrainians are actually fighting for them, they should appreciate the sacrifice with which Ukraine is confronting the forces of evil that must be defeated. The geopolitical implications of Moscow's defeat are too important to be overlooked. Russia did not expect Ukrainians to be so steadfast in defending their country and repelling Moscow's invasion. But the West must act more decisively in supporting the Ukrainian state and must take bold strategic decisions to back Ukraine rather than provide military aid in a metered, small portion.

The year since Moscow's invasion has shown that much more could have been done by America and NATO member states to extinguish the fire of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Moscow expected a quick victory in Ukraine. When that did not happen, it had to start competing with the productive forces of the Western world. Although Russia cannot match the production capacity of NATO member states. The lessons of the collapse of the USSR prove that it lost the Cold War because it was not able to compete industrially with the Western world. And if Putin does not withdraw from all Ukrainian lands, as he has been repeatedly asked to do, and the war drags on, Ukraine and the West will still win. And Russia will be weakened by international isolation, lack of material resources, high casualties, and lack of purpose to continue its aggressive war.

“Russia has already begun to realize that it is close to losing. Television propagandists, as if on cue, have begun to scare the United States and Europe with nuclear armageddon in all their political shows. It is obvious that Putin is bluffing, because the Kremlin is well aware that the Russian Federation has no chance of surviving a nuclear war. But the dictator is raising the stakes, and his information peddlers wonder why the West is not frightened when they are publicly threatened.”

Russia has already begun to realize that it is close to losing. Television propagandists, as if on cue, have begun to scare the United States and Europe with nuclear armageddon in all their political shows. It is obvious that Putin is bluffing, because the Kremlin is well aware that the Russian Federation has no chance of surviving a nuclear war. But the dictator is raising the stakes, and his information peddlers wonder why the West is not frightened when they are publicly threatened.

Over the past year, Ukrainians have learned how to conduct NATO-style military operations, and after our victory, the alliance's military academies will study the experience of the Ukrainian army. Our military, which has a high morale, has already managed to 'grind down' a significant part of the professional army of the Russian Federation, and now Ukrainian troops often face large numbers of poorly motivated and insufficiently trained mobilized soldiers on the frontlines. In addition, Russia is experiencing increasing problems with supplying its troops with ammunition and food. Even in Russia itself, political experts are sounding pessimistic, and they are well informed about the actual strength of the Russian economy and its armed forces. Russia's economy is in disarray due to a lethal combination of corruption, mismanagement, and, since the large-scale invasion, increased sanctions. Moscow had already bankrupted the Soviet economy once before, during the Soviet era, and this led to the collapse of communism. Now, the war in Ukraine will accelerate the collapse of the Russian economy, and thus the fall of the Putinist system.

The confrontation between the economies will be one of the decisive fronts in the war for Ukraine's independence. Despite the fact that some of Russia's gold and diamond exports may escape sanctions, most of Russia's revenues in this important area are blocked.  Just as Moscow's use of international banking systems, which are the main "economic millstone" for any state, is blocked. In addition, in the medium term, oil and gas revenues will never reach even a quarter of their pre-war level. Continuing the war will be very expensive for Putin, as Russia does not have the means to wage an economic war with America and a united Europe.

For Ukraine, the year of heroic confrontation with the Russian invaders was one of the most difficult in its history. But by starting the war, Putin has put the final nail in the coffin of the Russian-Soviet empire. It seems that only when he finds out that his imperial coffers are empty will he start thinking about withdrawing his troops from Ukraine. Until then, it will continue its genocidal war with ethnic cleansing and attempts at further territorial annexation of Ukrainian lands. It is already becoming clear that Moscow has neither the military nor the economic capacity to continue the war for another year at the same pace it set on February 24, 2022. At a time when Ukraine, with the support of the West, is able to wage this confrontation for much longer than a year.

Russia started this war, and it can easily end it by withdrawing from Ukraine. Until that happens, Moscow will continue to lose the war in Ukraine, no matter how many more recruits they manage to mobilize throughout the Russian Federation. An unwinnable war can never be won, no matter what Putin does next.

Source

About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.