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July 3-10 live war map: Frontline shifts in critical areas

10 July, 2024 Wednesday
16:14

The Russian army's objective is to seize the entire Donetsk region south of the Kramatorsk agglomeration. Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove are targeted, with Russian troops having some success in all these areas

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If the number of clashes rose steadily in May, from 500 battles at the beginning of the month to 800 by month-end, the first week of July saw over 900 battles. Russian forces know their window of opportunity might soon close. Despite significant losses, they're deploying all reserves to maximize gains in Ukrainian territory.

 

Chasiv Yar wavered but remained standing

After three weeks of intense fighting for the Kanal district of Chasiv Yar, including multiple counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Armed Forces managed to occupy the entire area, forcing Ukrainian defenses to retreat to the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets Canal. Consequently, Ukraine’s defensive positions on the opposite side of the canal became irrelevant, leading to a complete Ukrainian withdrawal from both the southern part of the city and the village of Kalynivka. The Kanal district had held firm for nearly six months since mid-February, fulfilling its defensive role despite extensive destruction.

Russian troops are now targeting Ukrainian defenders in central Chasiv Yar using guided aerial bombs. Although their attempts to infiltrate the Novyi microdistrict were thwarted, they will persist in encircling the city from the north via Kalynivka and from the south along the road above the canal. Their efforts to seize Klishchiivka have been unsuccessful, and Ukrainian forces are currently clearing remaining Russian positions in the village.

In addition to their "brilliant" frontal assault plan for Chasiv Yar, Russian troops have initiated an offensive from the Toretsk direction. This move potentially threatens the southern outskirts of Kostiantynivka in the future.

Toretsk becomes a new target

Reports indicate that Russian troops attempted to breach Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions on the outskirts of Toretsk, Pivdenne, and Pivnichne by digging underground tunnels, a tactic that has proven successful before. Initially, they penetrated Toretsk's streets for urban combat, but the arrival of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade stabilized the situation, acting as a rapid-response unit.

Failing a direct breakthrough, Russian troops redirected their efforts southward to encircle or engage Toretsk's perimeter. They managed a 5 km corridor capture, securing New York's outskirts and initiating urban combat in the city's southern district. Yet, their limited reserves hindered further expansion, leaving the corridor vulnerable to elimination.

Simultaneously, Russia aims to breach Ukraine’s defenses toward Kalynove - Stara Mykolaivka, intending to encircle Toretsk from behind and sever logistics via Kostiantynivka. This maneuver could collapse Ukraine’s fortified area in Oleksandropil with minimal resistance. The escalating shelling and assaults on Toretsk suggest Russian plans for a forthcoming front-line breakthrough.

The crisis in the Pokrovsk direction intensified

It took Russian troops about two months to capture the Ukrainian stronghold in Ocheretyne, push Ukrainian troops back to the right bank of the Vovcha River and the Karlivka Reservoir, and seize an area 5-8 km deep and 20 km wide. Recently, they took over the villages of Novopokrovske and Sokil. Yevhenivka is under nearly complete occupation. Yasnobrodivka is now in the gray zone—abandoned by Ukrainian forces but not yet entered by Russia. Novoselivka Persha is the last village east of the Vovcha River, but Russia has surrounded it on three sides and is gradually pushing Ukrainian heroes out. The Russians are also slowly advancing along both banks of the Karlivka Reservoir.

The worst scenario is unfolding in the area of Vozdvyzhenka and Lozuvatske, where Russian troops are breaking through to the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway, a crucial logistical artery. Recently, they managed to penetrate more than a kilometer into Ukraine’s defensive positions in both directions. South of Lozuvatske, they are moving west along the railway to bypass the defensive positions along the Vovcha River. Currently, it is unclear where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will halt the Russians in the Pokrovsk direction, as the creeping offensive has been ongoing for six months since the occupation of Avdiivka.

Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions

The situation in Krasnohorivka is dire, with city battles raging for two months. The Ukrainian Armed Forces hold the central areas, but Russia advances 1-2 streets per week, suggesting the city could be fully occupied in the coming months. In Heorhiivka, Russian troops have expanded the gray zone to cover the entire village. This is the second-to-last settlement before reaching Kurakhove, meaning if Krasnohorivka falls, Russia can redirect resources to attack Kurakhove.

In Kurakhove, the situation impacts Vuhledar, which relies on logistics from that direction. Last week's offensive aimed to move north from Volodymyrivka towards Vuhledar and towards Paraskoviivka and Vodiane, key logistical routes for Vuhledar. Although Russian troops got within 3 km of this road, it is not as critical as some politicians claim.

Kharkiv region, offensive on Borova

In the northern part of the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushed Russian troops out of Hlyboke and expanded control in northeastern Vovchansk. Despite this, the Russian offensive achieved its goal by drawing out Ukraine’s critical reserves.

Meanwhile, the previously announced offensive on Borova, a town on the Oskil River south of Kupyansk, has begun. After repelling Russian forces near Terny in the Lyman direction, they shifted focus to Makiivka and Pischane with Berestove. They advanced 2 km to the outskirts of Makiivka, trying to cross the Zherebets River at several points and force the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the village. This would allow them to expand their bridgehead.

Additionally, between Tabaivka and Berestove, the Russians broke through Ukrainian defenses, penetrating 5 km into Ukraine’s territory and occupying part of Pishchane. They aim to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces back to the right bank of the Oskil River, now less than 10 km away. A rapid breakthrough like this may necessitate rebuilding Ukraine’s defense line over a large front area. If the advance continues, the Russians could open new fronts, threatening Kupyansk from the south and Borova from the north. Given their gradual advance and significant resources, the offensive on Borova could soon be as threatening as the fighting on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts.

Explosions in Russia

Despite the dire situation on many fronts, the increasing number of explosions in Russia shows that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are receiving more diverse means of destruction. One major strike completely destroyed a massive military base in Russia’s Sergeevka, Voronezh region. In Tambov, Ukraininian Security Service and intelligence’s drones blew up a gunpowder factory for the fourth time and also hit an oil depot. Four drones successfully struck the Redkinsky plant in the Tver region, which produces aviation fuel. UAVs also hit the air base in Kursk and the airfield in Akhtubinsk, where Ukraine targeted the refinery and power substations in the Astrakhan region. Two Lukoil oil depots in the Krasnodar Territory, an oil depot in Kalachi-na-Donu in the Volgograd region, and a large power substation in the Rostov region were also targeted. Naval drones launched a massive attack on the port in Novorossiysk, and missiles destroyed the anti-aircraft defense in Streletskoye, Belgorod region. The highlight was a successful drone attack on two electrical substations in the Belgorod region, which halted the Oskol electrometallurgical plant, Russia's only modern full-cycle metallurgical plant. The blackout caused all electric arc furnaces to stop, freezing the molten metal inside. This shut down the plant, a key supplier to Russian defense enterprises, for several months.

The maps were created using information from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other verified sources. However, the maps are not completely accurate and only roughly reflect trends in the war zone.


















 
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