Russia retains its 'global gas station' status

Based on our monitoring, the facts are as follows: The export of Russian crude oil from Black Sea ports over the last four months of 2024 was:

• April: 4.06 million tons

• May: 3.49 million tons

• June: 4.13 million tons

• July: 3.54 million tons

The 14.4% decline in July compared to June is not unusual, as such fluctuations are common.

Export of Russian crude oil from Baltic Sea ports over the last four months of 2024 was:

• April: 11.8 million tons

• May: 11.31 million tons

• June: 10.68 million tons

• July: 10.34 million tons

The 3.18% decrease in July compared to June indicates that the downward trend of previous months is slowing. This suggests that the decline is not drastic but rather seasonal, likely due to routine repairs and maintenance.

What is the reason for the differing estimates? We have finally found the answer and confirmation of our assumptions, which we have repeatedly stated.

Western analysts use complex, and let's say, very expensive software methods. These programs are designed for calm, peaceful times and may not detect many factors that our experts can observe.

For example, very reputable analytical sources, used not only by politicians but also, importantly, by stock brokers (since oil is a global commodity), recently published statistics on tanker departures from several of Russia's largest oil terminals in the Black and Baltic Seas. This allowed us to compare their data with ours.

According to their data, 9 tankers with crude oil left Novorossiysk in the last 3 weeks of July this year, while our data shows 13. The difference of 4 tankers represents 500,000 to 600,000 tons of crude oil or 3.6 to 4.4 million barrels.

According to their data, 33 crude oil tankers left two Russian ports in the Baltic during the last three weeks of July, while our physical monitoring data recorded 52. This results in a discrepancy of 19 tankers, which equates to up to 2.8 million tons or 20.4 million barrels of Urals crude oil.

We won’t go into the details, as our publications are carefully analyzed not only by our allies but also by others who draw conclusions and take technical measures based on them.

The reason for this discrepancy, which we have also discussed extensively, is the electronic equipment and certain practices by tanker crews that distort real information.

Source

About the author: Andriy Klymenko, Ukrainian journalist, economist and BlackSeaNews portal editor-in-chief. 

The editorial board does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.