Russia’s potential to wage protracted war is lower than believed - Serhiy Zgurets

Defense Express military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi commented on what is happening in the Russian defense industry. Contrary to the statements that the Russian defense industry is moving to some kind of mobilization measures, there is no visible result of such activity. Russia’s potential to conduct protracted hostilities is lower than it has been believed to be. And this can be shown by the following examples.

Ivan Kyrychevskyi noted that the most striking example is Russia deploying from the Far East to the frontline in Ukraine Russian MT-LB (multipurpose light armored transporter (tractor)) with 2M-3 shipboard anti-aircraft guns, which are double-barreled 25 mm anti-aircraft guns from World War II. But 70 years have passed, and Russia still thinks that such equipment will shoot down Ukrainian drones or defeat its infantry. By the way, to ensure the effectiveness of such a handicraft, firstly, Russian soldiers will have to dig a very complex ditch, but the main problem is 25 mm ammunition of a non-standard caliber for the Russian armed forces. If we recall that the combination of MT-LB and ZU-23-2 is traditional for all conflicts in the post-Soviet space, we will see that Russia has exhausted the stocks of not otherwise engaged ZU-23-2, which is an anti-aircraft gun and the main heavy weapon for infantry.

Another specific point is that Russia is trying to modernize its T-62 tanks. Last fall, they claimed that 800 tanks of this type would be modernized to the T-62 M standard in 2022.

Such modernization included the installation of a newer sighting device, an optical fiber station for combating drones and more accurate shooting from closed positions.

As well as welding Kontakt-1 dynamic protection into units and anti-stimulus grids.

On paper Russia was improving the self-propelled assault gun to make it better protected and more accurate. But there is already evidence, which Russia itself does not conceal, that in about 6 months the 103rd Armored Repair Plant, as the main contractor for the modernization of these tanks, had only managed to produce a battalion of the tanks.

According to some reports, Russia has already deployed these T-62Ms of the 2022 model to the frontline, but when Ukrainian fighters examined all the trophies, they did not find any such upgrades. The only thing they noticed was that there was a more or less new sight.

The Defense Express military expert added that there was also information about another impromptu attempt by Russia, namely, to enhance the capabilities of its tactical aircraft, which it is trying to use as flying artillery. In other words, they decided to attach their own "analog", as they see it, of the American JDAM bomb, created on the basis of the Soviet FAB-500.

The debut of this Russian product took place over the temporarily occupied Donetsk, meaning that Russians used the precision munition as part of a friendly fire.

Open sources about this munition show that the electronics failed. Second, when Russia tried to copy the JDAM, they missed one specific thing. In order for the bomb to descend more smoothly, like the American JDAM, there must be more suspension units than on the Soviet FAB-500. Accordingly, this is why they had an unsuccessful debut of their precision-guided bomb, which almost landed on their own positions.