Russian troops do not leave Kherson and prepare to defend - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

According to ISW, Russian forces are likely preparing to defend Kherson City and are not fully withdrawing from upper Kherson region despite previous confirmed reports of some Russian elements withdrawing from upper Kherson.

They also point out that, Russian position in upper Kherson Oblast is, nevertheless, likely untenable; and Ukrainian forces will likely capture upper Kherson region by the end of 2022.

According to ISW, Russian warblogger stated that Russia’s surrender even of Kherson City is overdue, as an attempt to hold the city will likely result in defeat. This warblogger argued that if Russia’s military command decides to wage the war in Ukraine to a successful end, then the surrender of Kherson City is “nothing terrible” in the long run. Russian military likely has not prepared information space for a military defeat in Kherson region as of October 24.

Russian media has not discussed the possibility of a major military loss in Kherson region besides promoting information operations about a Ukrainian false-flag attack against the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) Dam.

• On October 24, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said that Russians only creatе illusion that they are leaving Kherson.