Why Trump will fail to achieve peace

Recent reports suggest that Trump’s primary motivation for achieving peace between Ukraine and Russia is the Nobel Peace Prize. This aligns well with his character and interests, reflecting a personal ambition. However, it also backfires on him. His bold claims about quickly ending the conflict have raised expectations, and Putin now fully understands that Trump is dependent on showing swift results.

It’s important to recall that Putin didn’t wage war on Ukraine as an end in itself; his invasion was an attempt to punish the West and force the U.S. into negotiations. Thus, he will likely exploit Trump’s heightened expectations to humiliate him. As I’ve noted before, Putin is not in the position of a defeated party. On the contrary, he feels emboldened and genuinely believes Ukraine’s forces will soon collapse - a belief he’s clung to for three years without disillusionment.

Another key factor is China. Trump’s inclination to confront Beijing makes it unlikely they will support ending the war on terms unfavorable to Putin. As I’ve often argued, our war won’t end without China’s stance being addressed. Trump would do better to tackle the war issue in Beijing rather than in Moscow.

How will events unfold, in my opinion?

As of now, Ukraine has begun receiving substantial amounts of weaponry. This is Biden’s final decision, and by the time Trump takes office, we’ll be well-equipped for combat. Trump will call on Putin and Zelenskyy to begin negotiations. Putin will tell him he’s ready to end the war under the Istanbul terms, while Zelenskyy will say such talks are pointless.

However, I believe Trump will manage to organize some form of diplomatic meeting at the representative level by the summer of 2025. The meeting will be meaningless, with all parties repeating the same positions as now. At that point, Trump will shift focus to other issues and remove the war from his top agenda. Meanwhile, we will continue receiving U.S. aid and fighting.

Overall, this scenario will closely resemble Trump’s experience with North Korea. In his previous term, he sought a Nobel Prize for resolving that conflict. Despite calling Kim "a smart guy," the Hanoi talks in 2019 ended in complete failure. No agreements were reached because Trump doesn’t make bad deals, no matter what he says beforehand. He won’t make such deals with Putin either.

It’s important to understand what will happen after Trump’s inauguration. His attempt to deport a million migrants will lead to serious internal conflicts. Efforts to appoint controversial figures to key positions will face resistance, as is already happening. The number of scandals will grow exponentially. Against this backdrop, Ukraine will remain on the agenda, but I believe Trump will be too preoccupied to fully focus on us. Additionally, Israel and Iran will demand significant diplomatic attention.

Overall, Trump will likely adopt a strategy of waiting while supporting Ukraine. He’ll be presented with data showing that time is working against Putin, and he’ll opt to wait it out.

If you take Trump’s words at face value, prepare yourself for some unsettling statements. But if you’re pragmatic, you know that Trump doesn’t hold his words in high regard - making bold statements is just a hobby for him. In action, however, he remains pragmatic and rational; otherwise, he wouldn’t have become a business legend.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, publicist.

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