When will Ukraine receive F-16s, how many and how will they help in war against Russia?

Contents:
1.When will F-16s arrive in Ukraine? 
2. How many F-16s will Ukraine receive?
3.How many F-16s does Ukraine need?
4.Could F-16 fighter jets have been delivered to Ukraine sooner?
5.How will F-16 fighter jets help Ukraine
6.What will Ukrainian F-16s hit?

Since talks about providing Ukraine with F-16s have been going on for a long time, Espreso will tell you when the American fighter jets will finally arrive in Ukraine, how many there will be, how many of them Ukraine needs and what targets it will attack with them.

When will F-16 jets arrive in Ukraine? 

The idea of providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets began to be discussed as early as 2022, but at the time everyone realised that it was a long way off, if not a realistic prospect. For example, the Commander of the US Air Force in Europe and Africa, General James Hecker, stated that Ukraine would receive F-16s only in 2-3 years after the relevant political decision was made. 

The key decisions were made in May 2023, when US President Joe Biden approved training for Ukrainians on F-16s. A few days later, at the Ramstein meeting of Ukraine's allies, it was decided to create an air coalition to train Ukrainian pilots. 
Some experts, such as former CIA Director and retired US Army General David Petraeus, predicted that Ukraine would receive the F-16 as early as winter. At the time, he called Ukrainian pilots exceptional and noted that they learn very quickly. 

Now we are talking about the fact that the F-16 will be in Ukraine by the end of the summer. However, this is no longer a media or expert prediction, but official information. On 10 July 2024, a joint statement was issued by US President Joe Biden, the prime ministers of Denmark and the Netherlands, stating that the latter two countries had already begun the process of transferring F-16s to Ukraine and that these fighters would be flying in the skies over Ukraine this summer.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also said that American fighters would be in Ukraine "soon". On 16 July 2024, Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukrainian troops were systematically destroying Russian air defence assets to create conditions for Ukraine's successful use of the soon-to-arrive strike aircraft.

How many F-16s will Ukraine receive?

So far, four countries have announced the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Belgium promises to provide the largest number of aircraft - 30. We are talking about 30 fighter jets. However, there is a nuance: the pace of delivery from this country directly depends on the schedule for receiving F-35s to replace the F-16s. Therefore, Brussels has stated that it will deliver three dozen aircraft between 2024 and 2028. Kyiv calls this pace unacceptable for Ukraine and asks for a faster process.

In addition to the Belgian aircraft, Ukraine will receive 24 fighter jets from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark and 6 from Norway.

However, it should again be stressed that these aircraft will be delivered gradually. Thus, according to Bloomberg's sources, Ukraine will receive only 6 aircraft in the summer, and two dozen by the end of the year. 

In addition, the delivery will depend on how quickly Denmark and Belgium can replace their F-16s with newer fighters. According to Defence Express, in the short term (until the end of 2025), Ukraine can only count on 40-50 F-16s from the countries that have already announced the transfer of the jets.

How many F-16s does Ukraine need?

Instead, Ukraine needs much more than 50 fighter jets in two years. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in particular, said that "fifty aircraft is nothing" and spoke of the need for 128 F-16s.

"The problem with F-16s is the number and dates. But let's be honest. Russia uses 300 aircraft against Ukraine every day. We had a decision about 10-20. Even if there are 50, it's nothing. We are defending ourselves, we need 128. This is the fleet. And until we have 128 fighter jets, we will not be able to match them (Russians - ed.) in the sky, it will be difficult," the President of Ukraine said at the Reagan Institute.

The deficit of 80-90 aircraft, according to Defence Express observers, can only be covered by the United States, which is the largest operator of these aircraft. However, politicians in the US are reluctant to talk about the prospects of transferring their own fighters to Ukraine. 

 
"But the fact is that from the very beginning, at least, Washington did not support the idea of transferring F-16s to Ukraine. (...) That is why it is necessary to change the US position, giving Ukraine the maximum priority in terms of fighters, as was done with anti-aircraft missiles," the article says.

Among the possible options, however, was a scenario in which the United States would buy 32 F-16s from Greece for Ukraine.

Could the F-16s have been delivered to Ukraine sooner?

Despite the fact that Ukrainian officials are constantly trying to push their Western partners to deliver the fighter jets, military experts do not believe that the F-16s are being delivered to Ukraine slowly. Serhiy Zgurets, director of the information and consulting company Defense Express, noted that no other country has ever re-equipped its air force so quickly. 

"No country has ever received F-16s and re-equipped them as quickly as Ukraine is doing now. The main problems relate to pilot training. Our partners cannot provide more training grounds and training bases. Although the pilots represented by Ukraine have already undergone a certain level of training," Zgurets said on Espreso TV channel.

The lack of qualified personnel to operate the F-16 was mentioned both in Ukraine and in the West. The Politico magazine said that Ukraine will receive two dozen aircraft by the end of the year because only 20 Ukrainian F-16 pilots will have completed their training by then. And the head of the political council of the Servant of the People party, David Arakhamia, said that the number of F-16s promised to Ukraine is twice as many as the number of trained pilots and engineers.

In addition to pilot training, Bloomberg described a number of other problems associated with the operation of Western fighters. The newspaper writes that the problems were so serious that they raised doubts about whether to transfer the F-16 to Ukraine at all. For example, there was a shortage of runways for these aircraft and vulnerability to attacks by Russian long-range weapons. 

Serhiy Zgurets also emphasises these problems. In particular, the expert believes that the Russians are constantly attacking the airport in Starokostiantyniv with cruise missiles because they consider it a base for F-16s. However, there are other airfields that can be used by American fighters. In addition, Ukraine is likely to keep some of the aircraft abroad.

"First, air defence - the protection of bases - must be deployed. After all, any Western fighters that end up in Ukraine will be the number one target. The Kremlin will throw everything at it to destroy these planes on the ground and publicise it as much as possible, with any hint of success. It will be a huge victory for Russia to undermine the efforts of so many countries," Defence Express editor-in-chief Oleg Katkov told Espreso TV channel.

He drew attention to the words of the Air Force Command spokesperson that the F-16s will be in protected locations. According to the military expert, we are talking about underground facilities where the aircraft will be located and serviced. That is, it is a large-scale infrastructure project.

How F-16 fighters will help Ukraine

There is no need to perceive American fighters as a "Wunderwaffe" that will instantly change the course of hostilities, says Serhiy Zgurets.  "At the first stage, F-16s will not have a dramatic impact on changing the situation on the battlefield. But in the future, as we gain experience and increase the number of aircraft, their influence will grow," the expert said on Espreso TV channel.

Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, stressed that F-16s will help protect the Armed Forces and civilians from enemy aircraft and helicopters in the combat zone, which will save many lives. He also noted that Ukraine's air defence system, although quite effective, destroys about 75% of cruise missiles and attack drones. Instead, F-16s can effectively eliminate air threats at the borders, preventing missiles and drones from reaching our cities. 

Despite the fact that Russian resources often publish comparative tables of fighter jet characteristics, which suggest that Su jets are no worse than F-16s, experts say that such comparisons should not be believed. These tables compare parameters such as size or speed, which are not really decisive. 

For example, a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Major Oleksiy Hetman, emphasises that the F - 16 are ahead of Russian fighters in many respects. In addition, American fighters have a better radar system. This means that the F-16 will "see" Russian Sukhoi and MiGs at a greater distance than they can. 
 
"The big difference between all Russian aircraft and the F-16 is that the F-16 is less visible to enemy radar systems and airborne radars because it has an effective reflective surface of only 1 square metre, while the MiG-29 has 29 square metres. In other words, the F-16 is less visible. It also has an on-board radar that can see a hundred kilometres further than the enemy. And the missiles used by the F-16 are more long-range, flying 50-70 km further than the missiles of the same MiG-29," the military analyst said.

Hetman says that a possible air battle between the MiG-29 and the F-16 would simply not have started because the F-16 would have seen the enemy aircraft earlier and destroyed it. Therefore, he believes that even 20-30 US fighters could give Ukraine air superiority. According to Hetman, a few dozen of these aircraft are better than half a thousand MiGs.

What Ukrainian F-16s will hit

In May of this year, Ukraine and Belgium signed an agreement that prohibits the use of Belgian military materiel outside Ukrainian territory. According to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, this also applies to F-16 fighter jets, which the Belgian side will use to strengthen the Ukrainian Air Force.

However, Ukraine's other partners are not so categorical. For example, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen does not object to Ukraine's strikes on targets in Russia with F-16 fighter jets if they comply with international law.

"You cannot ask this question and expect a simple answer, because everything depends on the circumstances. It must be in accordance with international law. But it is possible to achieve goals outside of Ukraine, yes," Frederiksen said.

The statement of the Dutch representatives was even more unambiguous. Hanke Bruins Slot, who headed the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs until 2 July 2024, stressed that Ukraine has every right to use the F-16 fighter jets donated by the Netherlands against targets in Russia to defend its territory.

"If you have the right to self-defence, there are no borders for the use of weapons... This is a general principle," Bruins Slot said.