Espreso. Global
OPINION

Ukraine, Russia, and ceasefire

6 May, 2024 Monday
21:00

I am constantly confronted with comments accusing me of wanting to “fight to the last Ukrainian,” of discrediting the idea of negotiations, and so on. So I want to make my position clear

client/title.list_title

Both in 2014 and 2019, I spoke about the danger of a large-scale war with Russia. And in 2022, I spoke about the danger of a long war and warned against the prospect of its globalization not only in Ukrainian but also in Western media. But both then, and now, I warned that the reliance on negotiations in this war was wrong. And that its end depends solely on the political will of the West and its willingness to provide us with genuine security guarantees and risk its own conflict with Russia.

In 2019, Ukrainians - including Volodymyr Zelenskyy - accused President Petro Poroshenko of not wanting to end the low-intensity war. Now, the same people who voted for Zelenskyy are accusing yesterday's idol of not wanting to end the major war.

“But in reality, negotiations to end the war do not depend on the president of Ukraine, whether Poroshenko or Zelenskyy. They depend on the president of Russia.”

But the Russian president is not going to agree to such negotiations, and in recent years, the very status of Ukraine as an independent state in the Russian political consciousness has finally given way to the status of a rebellious province, with whose hands the West is waging war on Moscow. Is a truce with a rebel province possible? The experience of Chechnya shows that it is, but it requires the complete depletion of the economic and demographic resources of the Russian Federation. Such depletion is also possible, the only question is when. Lesser depletion can create the conditions for turning a high-intensity war into a long, low-intensity war. The only question is when.

And yes, Putin is always ready to negotiate a surrender, i.e., the annexation of Ukrainian lands to Russia. I know that there are hardly any supporters of such a "peace" among my readers. But I think that even if there are, they should realize that they do not and will not constitute the majority in Ukrainian society. Moreover, the conclusion of such a "peace" is also a road to war. Only to a different kind of war - a civil war.

So, war, whether victorious or defensive, is not an alternative to negotiations; war is an alternative to the absence of negotiations and Russia's unwillingness to agree to them. And we all need to accept this reality and try to survive in it. Nobody is stopping us from formulating our own platforms in abstract negotiations, but our main formula is the formula of real security. NATO, the nuclear umbrella of the United States and other countries, NATO troops and bases - everything that could put Moscow in danger of a larger conflict, which Russia is not yet ready for. For now, this is our window of opportunity.

Eventually, it may close, just as all the other windows have closed.

Source 

About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

Tags:
  • News
2024, Sunday
22 December
20:32
Meloni warns Russia may use migrants to destabilize Europe
20:15
Abrams tank crew survives FPV drone attack in Kursk region
19:59
Exclusive
How Russia attempts to discredit Ukrainian charitable foundations
19:44
Russia shells eight settlements in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, killing one person
19:41
Updated
Russian soldiers execute 4 Ukrainian POWs from 110th Brigade in Donetsk region
19:17
North Korea supplies KN-15 ballistic missiles to Russia – reports
18:53
Dead dolphins wash up on coast after Russian oil tankers collide in Black Sea
18:36
Drones target Russia’s Oryol region, causing fire at oil depot
18:16
End of Russia's war against Ukraine: IMF does not rule out combat until mid-2026
17:56
Review
Destroying radars and blinding enemy air defense: Insights into the AGM-88 HARM missile that shocked Russia
17:30
2025 must be the year of a just peace for Ukraine – Zelenskyy
17:03
Putin threatens Ukraine with "greater destruction" after Kazan strike
16:46
OPINION
Civilians are weakest link in war of attrition
16:18
Russian forces kill commander of Free Georgia unit in Kursk region
15:49
EU prepares new sanctions package against Russia for third anniversary of full-scale invasion of Ukraine
15:17
OPINION
Ukraine–NATO: Endless entry process
14:53
Russia spreads false rally calls in Europe "against human rights violations in Ukraine"
14:22
Ukrainian Defense Forces destroy armored Russian group in Kupyansk
13:51
Exclusive
Fico seeks Putin's favor post-war – political scientist Reiterovych
12:57
Poland did not down Russian missiles as they posed no threat to its territory – Defense Minister
12:30
OPINION
Can Russia really collapse?
11:58
186 frontline clashes in one day: Russian forces step up in Vremivka direction
11:33
Ukraine will retaliate against Russian terror with strikes on military targets — Zelenskyy
10:58
Russia attacks Ukraine with Shahed drones and missiles: Debris hits high-rise in Brovary
10:36
Russia loses 3 air defense systems, 15 tanks and 1,820 soldiers in one day of war in Ukraine
2024, Saturday
21 December
19:45
Exclusive
NATO troops in Ukraine will prevent Putin's next invasion - opposition politician Feygin
19:26
Exclusive
Russian troops desperate to cross Dnipro River in Kherson region at any cost - Ukrainian colonel
19:08
Russia ramps up aircraft shelter construction to counter Ukrainian drone attacks
18:47
Russian forces attempt to cross Dnipro River in southern Ukraine every day
18:30
Russian forces fine residents of occupied Luhansk region for 'abortion propaganda'
18:09
110 combat clashes occur on Russian-Ukrainian front: heaviest fighting in Kursk region
17:54
Poland donates three Mi-8, Bell 412-HP helicopters to Ukraine
17:31
OPINION
Ending war: fewer scenarios remain
17:12
Russia deploys over 550 guided bombs, 550 UAVs, 20 missiles to attack Ukraine this week - Zelenskyy
16:53
Exclusive
Russia intends to negotiate without ceasefire, says opposition politician
16:34
Ukraine's Armed Forces form unit to protect cultural heritage
16:20
Updated
Drones attack elite high-rise buildings in Russia's Kazan, explosions heard at gunpowder plant
16:16
Ukraine approves Wolly remote-controlled combat module for use in army
15:57
OPINION
Crimea: panic among 'relocated residents' becomes key negotiation tool
15:35
Exclusive
Ukrainian forces face repeated tactical traps since 2022, encirclement looms near Kurakhove
More news