Ukraine, Russia, and ceasefire

Both in 2014 and 2019, I spoke about the danger of a large-scale war with Russia. And in 2022, I spoke about the danger of a long war and warned against the prospect of its globalization not only in Ukrainian but also in Western media. But both then, and now, I warned that the reliance on negotiations in this war was wrong. And that its end depends solely on the political will of the West and its willingness to provide us with genuine security guarantees and risk its own conflict with Russia.

In 2019, Ukrainians - including Volodymyr Zelenskyy - accused President Petro Poroshenko of not wanting to end the low-intensity war. Now, the same people who voted for Zelenskyy are accusing yesterday's idol of not wanting to end the major war.

“But in reality, negotiations to end the war do not depend on the president of Ukraine, whether Poroshenko or Zelenskyy. They depend on the president of Russia.”

But the Russian president is not going to agree to such negotiations, and in recent years, the very status of Ukraine as an independent state in the Russian political consciousness has finally given way to the status of a rebellious province, with whose hands the West is waging war on Moscow. Is a truce with a rebel province possible? The experience of Chechnya shows that it is, but it requires the complete depletion of the economic and demographic resources of the Russian Federation. Such depletion is also possible, the only question is when. Lesser depletion can create the conditions for turning a high-intensity war into a long, low-intensity war. The only question is when.

And yes, Putin is always ready to negotiate a surrender, i.e., the annexation of Ukrainian lands to Russia. I know that there are hardly any supporters of such a "peace" among my readers. But I think that even if there are, they should realize that they do not and will not constitute the majority in Ukrainian society. Moreover, the conclusion of such a "peace" is also a road to war. Only to a different kind of war - a civil war.

So, war, whether victorious or defensive, is not an alternative to negotiations; war is an alternative to the absence of negotiations and Russia's unwillingness to agree to them. And we all need to accept this reality and try to survive in it. Nobody is stopping us from formulating our own platforms in abstract negotiations, but our main formula is the formula of real security. NATO, the nuclear umbrella of the United States and other countries, NATO troops and bases - everything that could put Moscow in danger of a larger conflict, which Russia is not yet ready for. For now, this is our window of opportunity.

Eventually, it may close, just as all the other windows have closed.

Source 

About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.