Espreso. Global
OPINION

The illusion of quick negotiations

17 November, 2024 Sunday
14:23

In recent weeks, many have fallen into the trap of believing in the inevitability of quick, effective negotiations. But how realistic is this?

client/title.list_title

The 2022 full-scale invasion happened for two reasons:

  • Putin thought a quick war would elevate him to global prominence as a third superpower and allow him to tighten control over the post-Soviet space.
  • He believed annexing Ukraine, followed by Belarus and Kazakhstan, would halt the growing "Slavization" of Russia.

It's crucial to point out that neither of these goals has been achieved — and in my view, they’re now unattainable. But the Kremlin seems blind to this reality. This is key to understanding how Putin might act during negotiations with Trump.

The second point to consider is the shift in Russia's national ideology following "Emperor Putin's" re-election in March 2024.

From then on, Russia's main national idea boils down to this: Putin wants to live as long as possible and die in the presidential chair of natural causes. Every decision in Russia is now shaped by this obsession.

Therefore, when analyzing whether Putin would agree to freeze the conflict, we must ask: which option — peace or continued war — poses less of a threat to his life?

There’s no simple answer, but given current conditions, continuing the war seems safer for him. Ending the war would require addressing numerous social issues Russia is not prepared to solve. Sure, those issues won’t vanish, but they might be more palatable to society if wrapped in the narrative of an unconditional victory. Meanwhile, peace under Trump’s terms risks being perceived in Russia as an imposed and conditional "victory," which Putin fears deeply.

Speaking of fears, Putin is terrified of humiliation. Accepting negotiations under Trump’s terms right now would be a humiliation he won’t risk.

On the other hand, Russia’s economy is becoming an anchor — and its growing tech dependence on China is escalating into a national threat. Living standards are declining despite rosy official stats and assurances from "good Russians" in academia. No, this won’t spark a 1989–1991-style collapse anytime soon, but it will drag the economy into stagnation for at least the next decade. Putin knows this perfectly well.

Ultimately, the chances of negotiations hinge on two factors: recognizing these economic threats and Putin’s ability to convince himself that diplomacy is not humiliating.

For now, it seems clear: Putin isn’t ready for talks. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to underestimate the psychiatric dimensions of Putin’s mindset. Whether he can reconcile these internal conflicts will determine if negotiations are even on the table.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2025, Wednesday
19 February
20:38
Trump calls Zelenskyy “modestly successful comedian”, “dictator without elections”
20:25
Threat from Belarus: how fast can Russia build a strike force?
20:10
Ukrainian soldier does more for U.S. and European security than all NATO armies
19:54
Exclusive
Trump’s stance raises questions about air defense missile supplies – Defense Express
19:38
Putin lies about Russian troops crossing into Ukraine from Kursk region
19:22
What Russia may get from North Korea in March: Shells, ballistic missiles,KN-25 MLRS
19:06
Ukrainian defense industry covers 30% of military needs — Zelenskyy
18:50
Putin's reelection was illegitimate - Ukraine's disinformation center
18:35
Elections during wartime are Russia’s try to defeat Ukraine – Zurabishvili
18:20
"Ukraine doesn’t want peace": Russia’s latest fake narrative led by Putin’s ally
18:04
Exclusive
Ukraine’s battlefield success may turn peace talks upside down — military analyst
17:55
Updated
U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg arrives in Kyiv, holds high-level talks
17:47
North Korean troops in Kursk region told they’re fighting South Korean soldiers
17:31
Trucks and thermal imagers: Ukraine receives new military aid package from Lithuania
17:14
OPINION
Ukraine between predators: How to counter Putin and Trump
16:52
Ukraine’s former top general names key factors for Ukraine’s victory over Russia
16:43
Updated
EU approves 16th sanctions package against Russia
16:32
UK’s “air policing” proposal to Ukraine: Will it make a difference?
16:14
"War cost us $320 billion": Zelenskyy responds to Trump’s aid reimbursement demands
16:07
Ukrainian President names countries opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership
15:54
Exclusive
Russia may test NATO's Article 5 response with localized war in Estonia — Ukrainian officer
15:36
OPINION
U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh: key takeaways
15:24
Exclusive
Ukraine Russia war live map, February 12-19
February 12-19 live war map: new encirclement in Kurakhove sector
15:12
Belarus sells rapeseed oil from Ukraine's occupied Kherson region to EU – investigation
14:53
Ukrainian paratroopers repel Russian assault in Kharkiv region: video
14:36
Zelenskyy: If Ukraine joins EU and NATO tomorrow, I will no longer be needed
14:28
Trump claims Zelenskyy's approval rating in Ukraine dropped to 4%, Zelenskyy responds
14:15
Exclusive
New Ukraine-EU defense alliance signals revival of Europe's defense industry — military expert
13:54
Ukraine’s Air Force confirms precision strike on Russian troop dislocation in Zaporizhzhia region
13:32
Elections in Ukraine immediately after ceasefire are unrealistic – Ukrainian MP
12:56
Affiliate Material
I wasn't afraid of causing pain — it helped the wounded: combat medic Lidiia Zabolotska's story
12:35
Russia in Riyadh lies about not targeting Ukraine’s energy sector as it strikes Odesa – Zelenskyy
12:13
OPINION
Ukraine expects unity from Europeans, Europeans expect unity from Ukraine
11:57
Zelenskyy delays Saudi Arabia visit to avoid legitimizing U.S.-Russia talks
11:36
Review
Kurakhove pocket: Ukrainian Armed Forces hold ground under extreme conditions. Serhiy Zgurets' column
11:10
UK may supply Ukraine with Typhoon fighter jets if ceasefire is reached
10:36
Russia remains unwilling to negotiate on Ukraine following talks in Saudi Arabia — ISW
10:15
Russian drone attack causes power, water, and heating outages in Odesa, leaves 4 injured
09:54
Russia’s Syzran oil refinery on fire after drone strike
09:30
Russia loses 1,300 soldiers, 19 tanks, 72 artillery systems in one day of war in Ukraine
More news