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Will Russia open a new front in Belarus? Retired Ukrainian general explains why this is unlikely

31 May, 2024 Friday
10:56

Viktor Yahun, a retired Security Service (SBU) Major General, notes that as long as Lukashenko is in power, an offensive from Belarus is unlikely due to economic reasons

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He spoke about this on Espreso TV.

“As for the possibility of Russia opening a new front on the part of Belarus, this is a fantasy, such a scenario is not likely. As long as Lukashenko is in power, we can't expect an offensive from the Belarusian side. Not because Lukashenko is so “nice” to Ukraine, but because it is economically unprofitable for him. He understands that Belarus' entry into the war would mean huge security losses for him. He can send no more than 50,000 troops, and another 50,000 security forces, who may be in the second or third echelon. And 100 thousand is nothing, it is a possibility to capture one settlement or one district,” noted the SBU reserve major general.

According to him, then Ukraine will have the opportunity to attack Belarusian oil refineries. It is also an opportunity for our Belarusian comrades-in-arms to enter the territory of Belarus to start a guerrilla war in the rear.

“There will be destabilization of the situation in Belarus when the coffins go there. This is not Russia, which accepts any number of losses. Belarus is mentally closer to Ukraine. And Belarusians will ask: why are we at war with Ukraine and why do we need these coffins in our villages? Lukashenko understands all this well, so he will delay it to the end. The last thing he did, amid all the attempts to persuade him to participate in the war, was to allow a recruitment campaign in Belarus for the Russian armed forces for former military personnel who served in the security forces or the army. The recruitment is actually open, but this is the only thing he agreed to. Everything else is a fantasy. There are no forces, no means, no opportunities,” summarized Viktor Yahun.

  • On May 24, it became known that the Russian occupiers were building up a group of troops near the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. 

  • On May 28, Belaruski Gayun reported that Belarusians began receiving offers from “Ukrainians” who allegedly offered money for military information.

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