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Russia's mobilization of 300,000 soldiers by fall will be major challenge for Ukraine - expert

3 June, 2024 Monday
17:45

Military expert Petro Chernyk addressed the question whether Ukraine should expect large-scale attacks by the Russian army in the summer and what else is on the table

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He said this on Espreso TV.

"Russia has begun a large-scale deployment of the North military grouping near the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, but I don't think they will be able to build up this grouping very quickly. Why? Because in May we set an absolute record for the destruction of the enemy in manpower, almost 39,000, the previous record was in December, almost 29,000. So, somewhere around 10,000 plus is a very colossal result, and I believe that at this moment the Moscow elites are not ready to go for a comprehensive mobilization, because they need to sign off that the "special military operation" has stalled, and there can be very, very different things between the elites, Prigozhin has tested Putin's strength," Chernyk explained.

According to the expert, the fighting will continue with the same results throughout the summer.

"Will there be a change?" If they manage to build up 300,000 by the fall, plus (I emphasize) the half million they have, it will be a very serious challenge for us. This group is equipped as follows: up to 400 tanks, up to 1,000 artillery pieces, and up to 1,500 armored personnel carriers, which is 50-60% at the moment. Again, the Russians still have a lot of old Soviet junk in their warehouses, but they will not be able to provide them with full-fledged new equipment. If by the fall they reach at least 70-80% of the equipment and personnel, it will be a great success for them," the Armed Forces colonel emphasized.

Chernyk points out that Russia does not give up hope of reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk region, so it presents each captured square meter as a victory. To do this, Russia must accumulate a reserve, but the expert does not see such preparations yet: "We need a 100,000-strong corps to really break through to a depth of 30-40 kilometers.”

  • On May 10, Defense Express CEO Serhiy Zgurets mentioned the formation of the North group, where the new 44th Corps was deployed, and a certain accumulation of forces was taking place.
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