Russian troops try to encircle Ukrainian units near Pokrovsk, military-industrial complex at 40% capacity. Serhiy Zgurets's column

The situation in the Pokrovsk sector 

We are all focused on the Pokrovsk direction. Even if this area is less talked about than the situation in the Kursk region. Yesterday, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that he had visited the Pokrovsk direction, where the fiercest fighting is taking place, and said that the main task in these conditions is to strengthen the defense of Ukrainian troops in the most difficult areas, to provide brigades with sufficient ammunition and other material and technical means. Now the Russian troops are trying to advance in the Pokrovsk direction to the south, north and west in the area of Pokrovsk. There are Novohrodivka, Hrodivka and Selydove near Pokrovsk. We understand that the situation remains extremely difficult. When we talk about Novohrodivka, the southern and central parts of this settlement are under Russian control. Ukraine holds a small part of Novohrodivka, in particular, near the spoil tips. The fighting continues on the northern outskirts of the town and for the spoil tips located there.

At the same time, Russian losses in the Pokrovsk sector remain record high. However, Russia retains an advantage in artillery, and Russia's aircraft are actively working in the Pokrovsk sector. They are now moving not only in Novohrodivka, but are also trying to advance to Myrnohrad through Krasnyi Yar and Mykolaivka. Russia reached Mykhailivka and managed to cut the road to Karlivka. Russian forces also managed to capture the village of Memryk. Here, they are trying to create a threat of encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping near Nevelske. I hope that Syrskyi's trip to the Pokrovsk direction and the decision to reinforce should be implemented with some means and forces to stabilize the situation in this area in order to stop Russia's advance.

The situation is difficult in other parts of the frontline as well. In particular, near Vuhledar. Vuhledar is a dominant height and Ukrainian brigades have been holding the line there effectively for a long time, but the situation has now escalated. Russian troops are trying to attack Vuhledar from the flanks. The first direction is to the west of Pavlivka, and the second is near Vodiane. All these attempts do not look like the situation is becoming threatening. However, in general, the trend of Russia's actions is noticeable.

The Russian army is also trying to advance in the entire Kurakhove sector. Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Kostiantynivka - all of these are under Russian pressure.

Ukraine needs partner decision on Western weapons strikes Against Russian territory

Ukraine's military and political leadership is once again trying to persuade its partners to withdraw their ban on using Atacms missiles and Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike Russian targets deep inside Russian territory. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that he expects the partners to make such decisions. Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will also try to convince the Americans, who will meet with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Friday. At this meeting, the Ukrainian side is expected to reiterate and present a list of priority targets that need to be destroyed and will affect the course of hostilities in favor of Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to lift restrictions on the use of American weapons. This was reported by CNN with reference to Ukrainian sources. In fact, there have already been a number of different publications by leading Western and American media that, on the one hand, Ukraine insists on lifting the restriction, and the British have also asked the Americans to lift restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow, as there is data that requires the participation of the American side, in particular, regarding targeting.

The dynamics around the use of long-range weapons are now an important component that can influence the course of hostilities. Of course, the delay in striking Russian territory with Atacms missiles has allowed the Russians to pull some of their aircraft deeper into their territory. There are a number of targets, at least more than 200, that can be used to strike Russian territory, and hitting those targets can affect the course of the fighting. This is something that is again in the center of attention of the Ukrainian military and politicians. The American reaction to the delay in authorizing the use of long-range missiles can be explained by the fact that they are using the old scheme to ensure minimal escalation. However, in reality, this story of de-escalation looks rather strange. Because Russia has used all its capabilities and arsenals to strike at Ukrainian territory. Russian forces have struck and are still striking at Ukraine's peaceful objects. They struck the capital and energy facilities with high-precision missiles. These strikes were another impetus for Ukraine's political leaders to be able to talk to their counterparts abroad once again about the possibility of lifting the restrictions.

Another part, which concerns the negotiations between Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Secretary of Defense in the United States, is to ensure that Ukraine finally receives the Patriot systems that its partners promised to provide. So far, this process has been delayed, and we understand that this decision is extremely important.

Ukraine's defense industry can produce much more weapons for the needs of the Armed Forces

Ihor Fomenko, Director General of the FEU (Federation of Employers of Ukraine in Defense), said that with the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the task was set to increase the production capacity of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. In the two and a half years of war, this task has been accomplished. Both state-owned and privately owned enterprises have increased their production capacity by more than 30 times. According to him, a very interesting situation has developed during this period. The state collects all the funds and taxes and allocates 100% of them to support the components of the Security and Defense Forces. However, unfortunately, this is only 40% of the production capacity of the Ukrainian defense industry.

Fomenko emphasized that Ukraine is facing a situation where it can produce 2.5-3 times more products to meet the needs of the army, but lacks financial resources. This is despite the fact that 100% of the funds go to support the components of the Security and Defense Forces. This creates several problems for businesses. In particular, they have to adapt to the current needs and essentially reduce production capacity, staff, and equipment, or look for money abroad to have Ukraine's military equipment and weapons purchased by other countries. There is another option - to start thinking about opening controlled exports of certain types of weapons and military equipment, but again with restrictions, so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations do not feel any restrictions on meeting their needs in terms of quantity, quality, timing, or limitations. Fomenko emphasized that there are three such problems. First, planning. Long-term planning is needed, at least for 5 years, so that it is possible to plan financial policy, personnel policy, and procurement. Secondly, the utilization of production capacities that are not currently involved in the supply of the components of the Security and Defense Forces. These enterprises are now essentially idle and have more than 40% of their total capacity utilization. According to Fomenko, today the defense industry enterprises are limited in terms of access to credit resources. The private sector of the defense industry has almost no access to public funds.

Positive trend in Ukraine’s ammunition production

Ihor Fomenko said that the dynamics of the state program for the production of ammunition is quite positive. However, it is not as fast as desired. There are certain financial constraints. The state does not have enough money to finance such programs in full within the timeframe that is defined. There is also a problem with personnel and with the school. Ukraine has not had a munitions industry as such recently. According to Fomenko, the missile industry is a new industry for Ukraine, so we have to form a school from scratch, gain knowledge and independently fulfill the tasks that are defined in these areas. Nevertheless, as Fomenko noted, there are already positive results. For some calibers of ammunition, Ukraine has already reached a stable supply volume, which, of course, does not satisfy the supply during the active phase of the war, but the dynamics are generally positive.

Over the past 10 years, Ukraine has hardly produced any ammunition. Therefore, the most effective and fastest way to do this is to cooperate with one of the global players in this market. Alternatively, Ukraine can receive experience that can be used in this industry. Fomenko also commented on the possibility of producing 155-caliber ammunition. According to him, this is a rather specific caliber, and to produce it, you need to either reinvent a wheel on your own or get a license and master the production under the supervision of specialists who systematically produce tens of thousands of such calibers. He noted that this is the best and most effective way to acquire the relevant competencies. First, it is necessary to master the manufacture of shell casings, pouring, and then the next step is to master explosives and gunpowder. However, the issue here is more about access to raw materials. After all, gunpowder is cellulose, nitrocellulose, acids, and so on. There is a global shortage of these raw materials. This is a market where you have to fight for these raw materials. Therefore, it will take 2-3 years to build a full cycle of ammunition production with stable funding. Fomenko emphasized that these are realistic figures in order to have a closed cycle of ammunition production.

According to Fomenko, Ukraine's Western partners are concerned about the security of such enterprises, and there are three issues that concern them. First, it is physical security. Because the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is constantly under fire. Second, it is the issue of protection and security of intellectual property. There are risks that a technological solution or know-how may be lost for these companies and end up in countries that are not friendly to Ukraine and its strategic partners. Third, there is the issue of investment protection. According to Fomenko, Ukraine's partners see what is happening in the country's judicial and law enforcement systems. Therefore, it is necessary to create appropriate conditions for investors who are willing to invest their money in Ukrainian defense companies, and most importantly, to protect their funds.