Russia to produce 75,000 guided bombs in 2025, posing challenges for Ukraine's defenders

Defense Express writes about it. 

A recent RUSI report reveals that Russia plans to produce 75,000 guided bombs (KABs) by 2025, a 50% increase from the 50,000 units planned for 2024. The report, based on interviews with Ukrainian military personnel, highlights the growing challenges faced by Ukraine on the front lines.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” the report states, pointing to the increasing pressure these bombs will place on Ukrainian positions. Due to heavy enemy fire, Ukrainian forces are unable to build fortifications closer than 7 kilometers from the front line, and tanks and armored vehicles must be kept at least 3 kilometers away due to the threat of enemy FPV drones.

The battlefield is heavily influenced by drones, which provide reconnaissance from 3 to 15 kilometers deep, sometimes reaching up to 40 kilometers. However, the article notes, the effectiveness of UAV reconnaissance depends more on the commanders’ skill than on the drones’ technical features.

Despite the prevalence of drones, the report mentions that under certain conditions, guided 155-mm shells can be more effective against enemy armor. In one example, Ukrainian artillery destroyed three Russian tanks in two minutes using just five BONUS shells. Yet, this is rare, and drones account for at least 70% of destroyed enemy targets, although up to 60-80% of drones fail during missions.

RUSI also highlights logistical challenges, including the delivery of shells and propellant charges, which are often delayed due to enemy drone surveillance. This sometimes leads to shortages at frontline positions.

The report emphasizes the importance of protecting artillery systems from drone attacks, as damage to these systems can lead to early barrel replacements, which are currently in short supply.