Ukraine between predators: How to counter Putin and Trump

U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance delivered a cold shower at the Munich Security Conference. He didn’t directly mention Russia's war against Ukraine but essentially called European bureaucrats worthless, unable to take care of themselves. 

“When I look at Europe today it's sometimes not so clear what happened to some of the Cold War's winners,” said Trump’s ally.

One point that could be agreed upon was the criticism that democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars and digital ads from another country. “If your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with,” Vance remarked.

In response, European leaders traveled to the summit to decide what to do next. Preliminary reports suggest the EU is preparing a military aid package for Ukraine worth at least €6 billion by the third anniversary of the war. The goal is to strengthen Kyiv's strategic position at the start of negotiations with Russia under U.S. leadership. And here, one might reasonably ask, where were you before the fresh photos from the Riyadh talks? But, well... it is what it is.

Europeans have been warned for a long time that if they don’t change their behavior and get off their well-worn couches, nothing will change. Vance's speech is a sort of sequel to Putin's famous 2007 Munich speech, where the Russian dictator — still young and handshake-worthy at the time — announced his intentions to shake up old borders by the law of strength.

At that time, Russia was flourishing on gas and oil dollars from Europe and had just started to "rise from its knees." However, young Chancellor Angela Merkel did not see any danger in such speeches in Munich. As a result, the voices of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham and the late former Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, calling for unity and the expansion of NATO, were drowned in the syrup of Russophilia.

Vance’s speech — although without direct mention of the war in Ukraine and manipulations regarding Romanian TikToker Georgescu — was necessary. This was Europe being bluntly warned that Trump could easily make America "Great again" by removing the security guarantee.

Europe had already weathered past world wars while the U.S. sold them weapons, machinery, and rations. After World War II, America became the hegemon. But now, American troops are not aimed at liberating Paris. Macron understands this perfectly, which is why he took on some leadership and called colleagues to talk. It's not perfect, but for the recognition that Ukraine needs security guarantees, or else the ceasefire will end like the Minsk agreements, it was necessary.

I think many are already familiar with Donald Trump claims of rating that has allegedly dropped to 4% and hinting that it was aggressive Ukraine that provoked Russia into war.

Fortunately, American media conducted fact-checking and came out with headlines stating that the old man lied.

Headlines in American media. Photo: Facebook

Does this tear apart the already shaken Ukrainian soul with an unjust war? Yes. Can we consider that they are simply selling us out to the Russians, like a moose’s head for Putin? No.  

We indeed have a weak negotiating position because our diplomacy is solely focused on Bankova Street, while there should be several different channels, which, by the way, the Russians use cleverly. They have classical diplomacy, cultural diplomacy, and conditional "good Russians" who will tell you when necessary that you can't cancel Russia or demand that its borders shrink again.  

Among all the statements coming from Western media, there is only one useful point. Trump wants a result, dreams of a Nobel Prize, and wouldn't mind going down in history as a peacekeeper.  

The coming months will bring a flood of contradictory statements and cries that will make us, Europe, Russia, and China alternately break into a cold sweat. Trump hasn’t lost his mind — this is the aggressive style of a New York developer that made him a media figure.

President Zelenskyy faces a difficult choice — to pursue sanctions against the opposition or take the reins into his own hands, as he did in the early months of the war in 2022.

To achieve this, we must definitely stop distributing newspapers about a "year of just peace" to mailboxes across the country. And we should certainly not present Bulgarian reactors as a victory, which no one knows what to do with if there are no territories or people left.  

Zelenskyy must win over Trump with flattery, promises to share victories, and offer money. Lavrov, during his gatherings in Riyadh, didn't hesitate to praise the U.S., and if war criminals can do it, why can't we?  

The Ukrainian president has never hidden that his ideal statesman, at least visually, is Emmanuel Macron. The crisis in Europe and the inability to protect itself opens new doors for us as a country that has been grinding down the "second army in the world" for three years. It’s the right time to present ourselves to Macron as the strength that is the fortress of Europe — and for that, we certainly should not have loud corruption scandals in the defense sector, where Paris has a direct interest.  

Regardless of what Trump and Putin say, or what speeches are delivered by Vance, we have a simple task: No political demands from Russia, no recognition of occupied territories, no reductions in the Ukrainian Armed Forces or neutral statuses, no permission for Russian parties and media.  

We will reject all of this, just as we did before 2022. Any paper or promise from Russia is worth exactly zero, and we must remember that.  

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Maryna Danyliuk-Yarmolaeva, journalist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.