UK’s “air policing” proposal to Ukraine: Will it make a difference?

Defense Express provides an analysis of the practicality of such patrols in Ukraine.

One potential scenario for ensuring security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe against Russian aggression involves the deployment of foreign forces to Ukraine. The United Kingdom is also exploring the possibility of patrolling Ukraine’s airspace using its own aviation.

This option is under consideration in London, according to The Times, which cites its sources. The proposed mission would resemble NATO’s "air policing" missions, similar to those carried out in the Baltic states. This approach is considered more feasible than establishing a full no-fly zone. A key factor in assessing the practicality of such patrols is the potential for the aircraft to be based in nearby Poland, for example.

From Defense Express's perspective, however, this arrangement could undermine the entire purpose of the initiative, reducing it to a largely symbolic gesture with minimal effect on real security. Referring to NATO’s "air policing" mission in the Baltic states, which has been in place since 2004, it is noted that this operation involves the rotational deployment of fighter jet units to Lithuania and/or Estonia, due to the absence of their own fighter aviation and limited air defense capabilities.

The primary goal of these deployments is to patrol the borders and intercept Russian aircraft approaching NATO airspace. As a result of these patrols, interceptions of Russian aircraft over the Baltic region are regularly reported.

According to Defense Express, it is important to consider the number of aircraft allocated for such missions. Recently, at least eight fighter jets from various countries have been deployed for these operations. For example, as of December 1, 2024, four French Rafales and four Dutch F-35As are engaged in a four-month rotation. At times, the number of aircraft involved increases to 12–16. For instance, between November 30, 2023, and March 1, 2024, patrols were carried out by four Belgian and four Polish F-16s, alongside four French Mirage 2000-5s.

This highlights that a patrol mission over Ukraine would require more than just the participation of the United Kingdom. The number of aircraft needed to secure Ukraine’s airspace would need to be significantly higher than those deployed in the Baltic states. Furthermore, the concept of air patrols would only be effective if these fighter jets were stationed within Ukraine itself, rather than in Poland or any other more distant location.

If British Eurofighters were stationed in Rzeszów, they would need to fly approximately 1,000 km to reach the Russian border near Kharkiv. In comparison, NATO air patrols in the Baltic states operate much closer to their areas of responsibility. From Ämari Air Base in Estonia, the Russian border is only 200 km away, and just 40 km from the neutral waters of the Gulf of Finland. Similarly, from the Lithuanian base in Šiauliai, it’s only 100 km to the Kaliningrad region.

This significant difference in distance directly impacts the response time to threats, the total duration of air patrols, and the wear on aircraft engines. The only feasible solution for deploying European air forces would be to station them directly in Ukraine. This would necessitate upgrading Ukrainian airbases to meet operational requirements, securing them with air and missile defense systems, and maintaining a dedicated ground support team.

The critical question remains whether the UK and other European NATO and EU countries are prepared to take this step. “The answer depends on whether their leaders fully comprehend the shifting security dynamics and risks at hand,” Defense Express concludes.

• The United Kingdom is prepared to send Typhoon fighter jets to Ukraine after a ceasefire agreement is reached.