Forecast for 2025: why Putin will continue to wage war against Ukraine

He sees no point in living after a geopolitical defeat in the twilight of his years, so there are no compromises where his victory is unclear or ambiguous. This will determine his behavior in potential negotiations with Trump. But first, let's look at what the Russians have in terms of the ability to continue fighting, focusing on weapons and the economy.

Weapons

The situation with personnel is clear for now; there are enough troops, and despite losses, the orcs are even managing to increase their presence in Ukraine. However, the situation with weapons is catastrophic. According to various sources, Russia's defense industry can produce no more than 200 new tanks a year. OSINT analysts estimate that there are about 3,000 tanks in storage, of which only 18% are in satisfactory condition, with the rest in very poor shape.

“Overall, according to various estimates, all reserves will run out by 2025-2026. This means that Putin can maintain the pace of the war for another two years. North Korea will also assist, already fulfilling the role of the "Ural of the Soviet Army during World War II." It is North Korea's defense industry that is supplying the Russian army with shells on a massive scale.”

In addition, Putin is shifting the economy to a war footing, which involves reallocating large resources to military production. Clearly, in the next two years, he needs to establish the production of new weapon systems to compensate for the possible depletion of Soviet-era stockpiles. There are ample reasons to believe that he won't succeed for several reasons. First, the large financial investments in the defense industry are already causing significant inflation. Second, he lacks both labor and skilled professionals. While his team is actively seeking solutions, I tend to believe that by 2027, it will be difficult for him to continue the war on the same scale. Moreover, not only does he need to maintain the pace of war, but he must also restore the lost military potential.

Economy

Russia's economy shows high resilience and the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions. As of today, the average Russian experiences only prosperity from the war. Salaries are growing, job opportunities are increasing, investments in infrastructure are rising, and social payments are increasing, particularly in poorer regions where hidden mobilization has been most prevalent. It is expected that Russia's GDP will grow by 4% this year, one of the highest rates in many years.

“However, the economic prospects are not as positive in the coming years. The Russian economy has entered stagflation - a period of high inflation and declining production. Although the orcs manage to generate income from oil and gas sales to cover current budget expenses, it is clearly not enough to invest billions in transitioning to military production and infrastructure.”

The economy lacks private investment and access to capital markets, and such a model cannot sustain itself for long. According to various forecasts, by 2027, the Russian economy will be in decline, but a catastrophe will not occur. However, from 2027 onward, it can be expected that the Russian economy will experience systemic degradation, accompanied by technological backwardness, ultimately leading to collapse, much like the Soviet Union.

The risk of this degradation is Putin's biggest challenge today. Winning the war but losing the economy is very similar to his favorite "geopolitical catastrophe" -  the collapse of the USSR.

Putin's actions 

As we can see, nothing catastrophic is expected for Russia before 2027, but after that, a strategic defeat in the war may occur. If Trump offers negotiations, Putin will approach them from a position of strength, dictating unacceptable terms for both us and Trump. Moreover, I believe that before Trump's inauguration, combat operations will intensify across all fronts to demonstrate the "inevitability of Russian victory." At the same time, considering the points above, there is no reason for Trump to negotiate on Putin's terms, knowing the possibility of his defeat after 2027.

My prediction is that in 2025, negotiations will go nowhere, mainly due to Putin's superior position. I expect Putin to continue playing the game -  take what’s on the table, or tomorrow will be worse. For example, with the approach to the Dnipropetrovsk region, he might say that if you don’t agree to the previously proposed terms, he will now declare that region part of Russia.

However, from 2026 onwards, this situation will change. The Russian willingness to engage in dialogue and seek an acceptable exit from the war will evolve. Trump, who will not achieve a quick victory in the form of a ceasefire, will no longer rush into it, and the understanding that irreversible processes could begin in Russia after 2027 will strengthen his position.

But all of this depends on Ukraine's ability to withstand and the Ukrainian Armed Forces holding the front without significant losses.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.