Carlson-Lavrov interview: Not negotiations yet, just preparations

Lavrov conveyed the following to the Americans:

• There will be no nuclear weapons deployment (although Russia will continue to fearmonger and, after the failed attempt to launch Oreshnik at Kyiv, will think about what else they could launch.)
•  Russia is stalling while simultaneously showcasing a superficial readiness for dialogue. However, I still believe they will attempt to sabotage the initial stage of negotiations, aiming to pin the disruption on Ukraine. This strategy is so transparent that it will be difficult for them to play a subtle game. The key for us is to avoid any critical mistakes.
• The primary goal of this interview is clear: to send a message—"Stop the supply of weapons while we decide whether to engage in negotiations."

What remains unknown is what was verbally conveyed to Carlson in Washington. Although I think there are no top-secret things there, because in this war all the cards are on the table from day one.

And the last thing. These are not negotiations yet. This is just the very beginning of preparations for negotiations. Trump would really like to resolve the issue by January 20. 

Putin will do everything to delay the start of real negotiations. But I will repeat what I have said before: he will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table, at least because of the fear of a collapse in oil prices.

The window of opportunity for some kind of solution will be open until the end of spring. If there are no decisions by May or June, the likelihood that the war will drag on for another year increases dramatically. 

At this point, Putin will be forced to implement at least a partial mobilization, resulting in a slightly altered Russian army. However, it is important to note that Russia has already established all the necessary regulations to enable mobilization starting from March 25, 2025 (not necessarily to begin it immediately, but to be prepared to do so).

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.