Russia claims it can strike Ukraine with kinetic warheads from space: is it true?

Defense Express writes about this.

Russia has boasted about its "Oreshnik" missile, claiming its kinetic warheads could unleash destruction akin to a meteorite impact by heating to 4,000 degrees and "turning everything into dust." Ukrainian experts, however, have debunked this as more propaganda than science.

In a report by the Ukrainian analytical group "Consortium of Defense Information," analysts broke down the Kremlin’s claim into a physics problem. They examined a 1,500-kg warhead launched by a medium-range ballistic missile at Mach 10 (3.4 km/s). By the time the warhead passes through the atmosphere, its speed drops to Mach 5, reducing its impact energy.

One kilogram of mass at Mach 5 delivers 1.4 megajoules of energy, the report notes. This means the collision energy of each 41.6-kg warhead in the "Oreshnik" would equal just 13 kg of TNT. For comparison, a single Iranian Shahed drone carries 30 kg of explosives.

Kinetic strikes also lack explosive or fragmentation effects, making accuracy critical. Analysts point out that without precise targeting, the warheads’ limited destructive radius (essentially the size of the warhead itself) makes them inefficient for battlefield use.

Even in a theoretical scenario involving a single, massive 1,500-kg kinetic warhead, its collision energy would equate to just 500 kg of TNT at Mach 5. Such a strike would require a ballistic missile weighing 30-40 tons, with limited production capacity — hardly a practical weapon.

The practicality of such warheads collapses under scrutiny, analysts concluded. Instead, they suggest the Kremlin’s claims are designed to sow panic and perpetuate myths about Russia’s military capabilities.