Arrest of Shoigu's deputy hardly indicates split in Russian 'elites' — sociologist

He said this on Espreso TV.

"We have little information so far. There is clear information, and then there are connotations and assessments. I mean emotional coloring. For example, when it was first reported that Timur Ivanov, the deputy defense minister, had been detained, it was clear information, so everyone was confused, I mean, the Russian propaganda media generally did not understand how to cover it. Now it's not clear how this will be spun, and so far even we see only speculation from different sides, but there is no, you know, general line. We need more information, more understanding of what narrative Russian propaganda will choose," the sociologist explained.

According to Shulha, the fact that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was re-elected is also important in this situation and can propose a new government and new heads of departments. Therefore, Ivanov's arrest may be presented as a personnel rotation.

"What exactly did this Timur Ivanov do? He was involved in construction, and construction has always been a very lucrative position in all ages and all countries, and it really is, without exaggeration, billions of dollars. And he was also involved in the reconstruction of the occupied territories, in Mariupol and beyond, which is billions and billions of dollars that are not actually accounted for," says Shulha, adding that he would not call these events a split in the "elites" or something very significant.

According to the sociologist, if the Russian government wanted to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, he would be fired under the pretext of Putin's re-election.

Who is Timur Ivanov?

Timur Ivanov is considered one of the most important members of Sergei Shoigu's team. He has been Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation since 2016. Prior to that, he headed Oboronbud JSC for three years. Previously, he worked as deputy chairman of the Moscow region government and at Russian fuel and energy companies.

Ivanov was in charge of construction-related issues at the Ministry of Defense. In particular, he was responsible for the creation of the main temple of the armed forces, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, and, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, for the project to "restore" occupied Mariupol.

In 2022, Alexei Navalny's team found Timur Ivanov's real estate in Moscow, the Moscow region and Tver region worth more than $1 billion.

What happened before

On April 23, the Russian Investigative Committee announced the detention of Ivanov. 

At the same time, the Russian media outlet Meduza reported that there was an unofficial version of Ivanov's arrest - he was allegedly suspected of treason. At the same time, Ivanov's lawyer, Murad Musayev, told RIA Novosti that "there are no other charges than the announced bribery charge".

The next day, Ivanov was arrested until June 23 2024. On the evening of April 24, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued an order to remove Timur Ivanov from his post as deputy.