Russian personnel, equipment losses in September: analysis

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko made this statement in an analysis of Russia's monthly losses for a joint project between OBOZ.UA and Information Resistance.

Personnel losses

In September, the losses of the Russian forces maintained the average figure over the past five months, amounting to 38,130 people. This is the second-highest figure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The personnel losses in 2024 remain among the highest for the entire period of the war because infantry is the main offensive potential of the Russian army, and there is less and less equipment available for this purpose.

As the mechanized component decreases, casualties among the personnel will continue to increase. However, as long as mobilization processes in Russia allow them to compensate for these losses on a monthly basis, they will not have a critical impact on the intensity of the occupation forces' offensive. 

Losses of tanks

In September, the Russian army lost 291 tanks, which is not much different from the summer figures and is one of the lowest totals for the entire period of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Only in the second half of September, after a significant intensification of the offensive on Vuhledar, did losses increase on a monthly average basis.

These losses are linked to the Russian command's realization of the critical state of tank stocks and the inevitable shortage of main battle tanks in the troops, leading to their forced conservation. However, for large-scale offensives against Vuhledar, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and other areas, tanks remain indispensable.

Losses of armored combat vehicles

Due to the intensification of the offensive in several areas, the Russian army lost 787 armored combat vehicles in September, a notably high figure - especially compared to the summer months. The Pokrovsk-Kurakhove direction and the Vuhledar area are particularly significant in terms of the number of losses.

As with the tanks, it is clear that the Russian army command could not maintain an economy mode for long and was forced to deploy the remaining equipment to achieve its objectives.

Losses of cannon artillery

In September, the losses of cannon artillery in the Russian army amounted to 1,219 units.

This is far from a record, but it is more than in May, and it is also a good confirmation that the counter-battery fight of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is much more successful than that of the Russian Federation.

Despite the high rate of losses of barrel artillery systems by the Russian forces, the deficit in this category will not occur soon, expected in the second half of 2025.

Losses of MLRS

In September, the losses of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) by the Russian occupation forces maintained the traditionally low average of recent months, totaling 28 units, compared to the average for cannon artillery. Such low rates of loss for MLRS by the Russian army are due to a shortage of these systems and austerity measures implemented by the command.

Currently, MLRS is one of the categories that the occupation forces cannot replace on a monthly basis, and as a result, they are gradually depleting their stocks.

Losses of air defense systems

Air defense systems are another category that the Russian army is losing without being able to compensate for these losses. In September, 23 of them were destroyed.

At first glance, this figure may not seem significant, but even the Russian military-industrial complex is currently unable to replace these systems with new or restored units.

Losses of vehicles

In September, Russian forces reported very high motor vehicle losses, totaling 1,740. The reasons are consistent: a shortage of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other armored vehicles. As a result, a significant number of non-specialized civilian vehicles are being used for various purposes, often during assault operations by the Russian army.

Loss of special equipment

In September, the Russian army lost 323 pieces of special equipment, setting an absolute record. This increase is due not only to the Russian army stepping up engineering work near the contact line and attempting to evacuate damaged equipment from the battlefield but also to efforts throughout September to establish logistics across the Seim River in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. All of this has contributed to this significant, though still important, record of losses for the Russian forces.

• Over the last day, October 1, 155 combat clashes took place at the front. Russian forces are most actively advancing in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kupyansk directions.