Russia tests US and NATO by launching missiles at Poland

The American president's general statement made after the emergency G7 meeting regarding the missile attack on the territory of Poland leaves room for various hypotheses "what happened?" They said that the preliminary information did not show that it came from Russia. Of course, some may think that the missiles are from Belarus, and not from Russia at all, and that they were some fragments of a missile that fell on the territory of Poland by accident after being shot down by the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces. And Russian propaganda generally spreads the version that it was a Ukrainian missile (remember what happened with MH17 in July 2014), etc.

But... Masking, bluffing, provocation, and probing are the traditional arsenal of methods of the NKVD, MGB, KGB, and FSB. Since the current Kremlin Führer comes from this milieu, he acts accordingly. My hypothesis is that there was a probe yesterday. Russia tested the US and NATO, and more than once.

An analysis of the potential targets of Ukraine's energy facilities, which were hit by Kh-101 air-based cruise missiles and older Kh-55 missiles on November 15, shows that the closest target to the Polish village of Przewodów (a 330 kV substation) is located, albeit close to the border with Poland, but almost fifty kilometers to the northeast. Another potential target (also a 330 kV substation) is more than 70 km to the southwest. That is, missiles with a probable circular deviation of no more than 100 m (Kh-55) or 10-20 m (Kh-101) could not have missed by several tens of kilometers like that.

“The missile was directed exactly where it was going - towards Poland. And if it was intercepted by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, then this precisely indicates that it was headed not to damage substations, but to target Polish territory near the border with Ukraine.”

The missile was directed exactly where it was going - towards Poland. And if it was intercepted by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, then this precisely indicates that it was headed not to damage substations, but to target Polish territory near the border with Ukraine. And that is why the Russian Ministry of Defense is not lying when it claims that they did not strike targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border. Everything is true, they purposefully struck a chosen target on the Polish side near the border - some small, insignificant village. In the case of which (when it is pressed against the wall) it can be said that the missile "lost its way" and "accidentally" hit where it was not supposed to hit, they say, it flew a little further.  And it is also traditional to blame Ukraine, which is already happening.

The reaction of the US and NATO is the goal of this probing strike.

By the way, it is not the only one. Another probing is being carried out due to the suspension of oil transportation by UkrTransNafta through the southern branch of Druzhba in the direction of three countries of Central Europe - Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. It is obvious that this termination is caused by damage to the substation (also 330 kV), through which power was supplied to one of the numerous oil pumping stations of the Druzhba pipeline.

“Another probing is being carried out due to the suspension of oil transportation by UkrTransNafta through the southern branch of Druzhba in the direction of three countries of Central Europe - Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary”

Those who chose targets for strikes could not but know what the consequences of their defeat would be. Actually, the targets are selected in order to maximize the effect of the impact, which can have more than just a material dimension. In this case, Russia wants to see how NATO will react to indirect (outside NATO) damage to critical energy infrastructure.

Accordingly, after assessing the Alliance's reaction, the Kremlin will choose the option of further actions with regard to NATO in order to split the already shaky Alliance and force it to stop helping Ukraine.

Well, while the Kremlin scans the information space and remains satisfied with the Western reaction, we will study everything, investigate, and not rush to make conclusions. Let me remind you that no conclusions were made in NATO after the March 10 incident with the Tu-141 Strizh UAV, which flew over the territory of several NATO countries (Hungary and Romania) and crashed near Zagreb. Even so, it still remains officially unclear whose Strizh it was - there was only a statement that it was a Soviet-era UAV.

About the author. Mykhailo Honchar, analyst, Ukrainian expert on international energy and security relations.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.