Russia's current influence operation in Moldova: main narratives against referendum

Reports suggest that Russia has already spent over $100 million on its influence operations in Moldova, using the funds to sponsor propaganda and bribe voters.

Espreso.Global spoke about Russian influence operations in the country with Andrei Curăraru, a security expert and co-founder of WatchDog.md, a think tank based in Moldova.

Goals of Russia's influence operations in Moldova

According to Curăraru, the referendum on Moldova's EU course is more critical for Russia than the presidential election. If Moldova's integration into the EU is stalled - similar to what happened in Georgia - it will be easier for Russia to control the electorate. At the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary elections, it will be easier for them to gain power.

The expert believes that Russia's current influence operation has two main goals: first, to ensure that the referendum does not happen or is deemed illegitimate. The second goal is to push for presidential elections to be held in two rounds instead of one. This would show the ruling government's “weakness” and prepare a foothold for Russia before the 2025 parliamentary elections.

Andrei Curăraru mentions that Watchdog.md has information about protests that provocateurs are already planning to stage after the elections, which could lead to open conflicts with law enforcement.

"There have already been small protests that they tried to escalate into clashes with the police. They were essentially testing Moldovan law enforcement's response. They threw paint on state buildings and drew graffiti to see how quickly police would arrive and if they could handle such incidents," he said.

Tactics employed by Russian influence actors

The expert mentions a Moscow-based organization called Eurasia, which “focuses on building international partnerships”. This group is linked to fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who is actively working to disrupt the referendum. Eurasia is under U.S. and EU sanctions.

"Eurasia uses church representatives in Moldova to spread information it needs. It organizes pilgrimages, distributes Russian 'Mir' cards, and grants each participant 1,000 euros," he said.
 

According to the co-founder of Watchdog.md, Eurasia is also attempting to influence Moldovan youth and teachers. They invite them to Moscow for various events and conferences. Youth then serve as couriers, bringing cash back to Moldova to fund Shor's activities.

Russia turns to even bribing voters in Moldova

Russia recently revealed that about 130,000 people in Moldova received so-called social assistance. In reality, it’s just a bribe for their votes or to support the Shor protests, either in person or online.

The expert noted that this accounts for nearly 10 percent of Moldova's voters. Investigators from Rise Moldova found that people received money from Ilan Shor through the Russian bank Promsvyazbank.

“This Russian bank is being used by a Moldovan oligarch to bribe voters to say 'no' in the referendum on joining the EU and to support a candidate whose name will be sent from Moscow via the Telegram app,” the investigators say.

Moldova has been dealing with Russian propaganda for years

Since 2014, the country has been blocking Russian TV channels, starting with Russia 24. In 2022, six pro-Russian channels were banned: Primul in Moldova, RTR-Moldova, NTV-Moldova, Accent TV, TV6, and Orhei TV.

The expert noted that some banned channels are still formally broadcasting. For example, one channel resumed its activities as GRT in Gagauzia, Moldova's most pro-Russian region. The expert notes that with the GRT channel, Moldovan taxpayers are themselves financing Russian disinformation.

Moldova also regularly blocks websites that contain Russian propaganda. Sites like sputnik.md, gagauznews.md, and rta.md were blocked. This September alone saw the closure of seven propaganda websites, including ria.ru and crimea24tv.ru. However, blocked sites frequently reemerge under new domain names.

About 45–50 percent of Moldovans watch TV, but many Russian-speaking viewers are now turning to TikTok and Telegram due to the ban on propaganda TV channels and websites.

A few days ago, Moldova blocked Telegram channels linked to the pro-Russian Shor party. Andrei Curăraru observed that Moldovan authorities have taken action against Telegram propaganda for the first time.

Several dozen channels and bots linked to the pro-Russian Shor party have been banned so far. In total, there are about 1,000 Telegram channels spreading pro-Russian disinformation in Moldova, the researchers said.

Main Russian propaganda narratives against the referendum

Andrei Curăraru mentions that there are around 200 narratives used in Russian propaganda against the referendum, with the most common ones being:

• “Moldova isn't welcomed in the EU.”

• “The EU is falling apart.”

• “The EU funds will only lead to long-term debt for Moldovans and they will be stolen.”

• “Traditional values are threatened by EU integration and LGBT propaganda.”

Curăraru notes that following the ban on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, there was a strong reaction in Moldova's Telegram channels. They took a statement from one of the Moldovan officials who said that banning the Russian Orthodox Church in Moldova is also a good idea and twisted it to claim that the churches in Moldova are in danger. 

Since about 80 percent of the churches in Moldova are affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church, this narrative has particularly targeted older generations. Curăraru notes that there are frequent false claims about the introduction of LGBT education in schools or the distribution of LGBT flags.

Another narrative suggests that the EU and NATO are the same, meaning that joining the EU means joining NATO, which could lead to a war with Russia. The expert points out that those promoting this idea rarely name who Moldova would be at war with or why.
 

A set of Kremlin-style narratives plays on various fears in Moldovan society, such as the belief that foreigners will buy up all the land, that the referendum is a scheme for the EU to take Moldovan land, and that Western military bases will be set up in Moldova.

Pro-Russian media in Moldova and their narratives 

To spread disinformation about the referendum in Moldova, pro-Russian influence actors are actively using websites from Russia-controlled and self-proclaimed Transnistria, including Tiraspol News. This website is part of a Russian propaganda network that targets all EU countries and all regions of Ukraine. These websites share identical designs and pro-Kremlin propaganda topics.

In one of its articles, Tiraspol News disseminated the false information that President Sandu is attempting to incorporate Moldova into Romania through the EU referendum (source: https://tiraspol-news.ru/politics/2022/06/08/1300.html). The propaganda website quoted Dodon, claiming that "Sandu and her external masters are deliberately destabilizing the country to justify the deployment of NATO troops on its territory."

Social pages from unrecognized Transnistria also spread Russian propaganda on Facebook. One of the pages within the network is the News of the PMR: https://www.facebook.com/novostipmrcom.

The Panorama MD Telegram channel constantly broadcasts messages from pro-Russian politicians. The statements of Ilan Shor, the pro-Russian oligarch in exile and leader of the pro-Russian Pobeda party, who linked the referendum to a war, drew particular attention. “The West is trying to turn Moldova into another military playground, but the people of the republic have already shown that they do not want to participate in the 'games' of external partners,” Shor said in a video published by this Telegram channel.

The Telegram channel "Grazhdanin" (Citizen) also fueled the pro-Russian influence campaign prior to the Moldovan elections. Specifically, it disseminated false information that "the EU Law on Restitution will oblige Moldovans to transfer their property to the descendants of Romanians." This confirms that before the referendum on EU accession, Russian actors are intimidating Moldovans with the loss of independence, land and property rights.

The Telegram channel “MOLDOVA WITH RUSSIA! SANDU IS THE WEST'S LITTER!” spreads anti-European narratives and conspiracy theories (https://t.me/s/aifmd/59120). The Transnistria Russia account regularly spreads anti-European narratives, including a statement by pro-Russian propagandist from France Emmanuel Todd, who claims that "Russia's victory will free Europe from NATO." Todd states that "Russia will not attack Europe because it does not want to expand, as it has 17 million square kilometers of territory." What he fails to mention is that Putin's regime is currently at war to seize and occupy more Ukrainian territories.

The Telegram channel "News for Gagauzia" consistently disseminates Russian propaganda against the EU, denigrating the President of the European Commission via promoting video content under the headline "The main witch of the European Union von der Leyen met with President Sandu." This Telegram channel also distributed daily publications in support of the pro-Russian party “Pobeda” and messages in support of the protest mood in Moldova. Among the biased materials were the statement that “President Sandu declared war on youth” and the publication of statements by pro-Russian oligarch Shor: “These bastards are depriving the country of the past and present and want to take away the future” (source: https://t.me/gagauznewsmd/51785).

The Telegram channel "Gagauz Republic" also joined efforts to disseminate Kremlin-style propaganda: "For 30 years, citizens of Ukraine and Moldova have sacrificed half of their population for the sake of promises to join the European Union. Was it really worth it?” (source: https://t.me/Republic_Of_GaGauZia/62519). It also ridicules Moldova's path to the European Union and demonizes the EU in general. 

Another pro-Russian Telegram channel, Moldova-Live, continuously criticizes President Sandu and calls for voting for Vasiliy Tarlev.

Other Telegram channels that spread anti-European and pro-Russian disinformation include Antimaidan 2.0 Moldova, Evening Tiraspol, Eurasian Moldova, TOT Moldova, Tirdea channel, and the Moldovan version of the Russian state-owned Sputnik.

Our analysis shows that online media from Russia-controlled, unrecognized Transnistria, the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia, and pro-Kremlin politicians led by exiled oligarch Shor were involved in spreading Russian propaganda in Moldova and demonizing the EU. We compiled a list of anti-EU and pro-Russia publications examples here below.

• https://t.me/aifmd/59120

• https://t.me/antimaidanmd/12281

• https://t.me/disputPmrRu/30325

• https://t.me/e_tiraspol/13714

• https://t.me/e_tiraspol/13714

• https://t.me/eurasiamoldova/25408

• https://t.me/eurasiamoldova/25591

• https://t.me/gagauznewsmd/51618

• https://t.me/gagauznewsmd/51757

• https://t.me/gagauznewsmd/51785

• https://t.me/grajdaninmoldovi/40746

• https://t.me/grajdaninmoldovi/40991

• https://t.me/MOLDOVA_L/14560

• https://t.me/mv6566/29773

• https://t.me/mv6566/29818

• https://t.me/pressmd/30988

• https://t.me/pressmd/31588

• https://t.me/pridnestrovec/63440

• https://t.me/Republic_Of_GaGauZia/62519

• https://t.me/Republic_Of_GaGauZia/62816

• https://t.me/rusputnikmd/86303

• https://t.me/rusputnikmd/88459

• https://t.me/tirdea/81054

• https://t.me/TOT_Moldova/97653

• https://tiraspol-news.ru/politics/2022/06/08/1300.html

• https://tiraspol-news.ru/society/2024/10/01/139402.html

• https://www.facebook.com/novostipmrcom

The Moldovan authorities detected the threat and took prompt action. Moldova blocked telegram channels associated with the party of fugitive oligarch Shor on October 10. The authorities blocked the channels of Ilan Shor himself, MPs Marina Tauber and Vasiliy Bolya, the head of the autonomous region of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, and several channels affiliated with Shor's group. The Eurasian Moldova and Gagauzinfo.MD channels, where we detected pro-Russian disinformation and manipulative posts, were banned too.

We remain optimistic that Moldova will overcome Russian interference and disinformation operations and define their EU aspirations in their constitution. Moldova has been applying strong efforts in combating Kremlin malign influence and is making positive progress, and we believe the country has high chances to succeed.