Russia can fund war in Ukraine for another year, but fears anti-mobilization riots – secret documents

Espreso has analyzed new publications by The Washington Post with reference to leaked US military documents. They reveal information about the reaction of Russian economic elites to sanctions, data on mobilization plans, the deficit of Russian troops and reserves, and the number of deaths.

The economic elites are suffering, but they support Putin

As of early March, US intelligence agencies estimated that some Russian economic elites may disagree with the country's course toward Ukraine, that sanctions have hurt their businesses, but they are unlikely to abandon their support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

These elites are likely to insist on supporting the Kremlin's goals in Ukraine and help Moscow evade sanctions.

The document doesn't address the impact of the recently imposed sanctions or the long-term impact of the European oil price ceiling, which has seen Russia's oil revenues plummet.

“Moscow is relying on increased corporate taxes, its sovereign wealth fund, increased imports and businesses adaptability to help mitigate economic pressures,” reads part of the assessment, which is labeled top secret, the highest level of classification.

The documents don't contain a detailed discussion of their sources, but are marked with a code that indicates they were obtained from intercepted communications - apparently, access to channels where Russian figures privately discuss how to limit the impact of sanctions.

US intelligence has revealed that Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov drafted a letter to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in early March to seek contingency support to avoid a potentially embarrassing collapse of Russian state institutions such as the International Investment Bank, the International Bank for Economic Cooperation, and the Eurasian Investment Bank due to sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

Subsequently, on April 12, the United States imposed sanctions directly on the Budapest-based International Investment Bank, prompting the Hungarian government to announce that it would cease cooperation with the financial institution, which Russia describes as an 'international development bank.'

According to another document, US intelligence revealed that officials from Russia's main intelligence agency and the FSB were concerned about the insufficient amount of foreign currency held in Russian banks. They also warned that the United States could impose additional sanctions on Chinese companies still doing business with Russia and urged them to keep such transactions secret.

Employees of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man behind the Wagner Group, 'realized' that the recently announced sanctions against the Russian MTS bank would lead to the cessation of transactions with American companies and “dollar transactions on May 15” and were concerned that Chinese companies would stop doing business with Russia to avoid the impact of sanctions, the intelligence document says.

It remains unclear what relationship Prigozhin's business empire had with MTS Bank, which was sanctioned by the US in March, just weeks after it had received a business license in the UAE. The license was subsequently revoked by Abu Dhabi in light of the sanctions.

WP quotes Adam Smith, a former Obama administration sanctions official, who notes that any argument that sanctions do not affect Russia or those targeted by them is refuted by the fact that the very people who claim that they have not been affected are the ones who loudly complain about their unfairness.

Problematic mobilization

In addition to the economy, other factors, such as ammunition costs and the need for new soldiers, affect Russia's ability to fight. Other classified US intelligence documents obtained by The Washington Post also discuss these factors.

Russian officials are trying to recruit hundreds of thousands more troops to fight the war in Ukraine. But the recruitment plans being pushed by military leaders are raising concerns among other government officials worried about the country's increasingly acute civilian labor shortage.

In mid-February, President Vladimir Putin reportedly backed his military's proposal to 'quietly deploy' 400,000 additional troops during 2023 for the war in Ukraine. The document, classified as a daily CIA intelligence update, states that the information was based on a signals intelligence report, meaning it was obtained by intercepting or tapping Russian military communications.

One document claims that the FSB questioned internal military statistics in late February, claiming that they did not take into account the deaths of soldiers from irregular formations such as the Wagner mercenaries. The FSB noted that the actual number of wounded and killed Russians is close to 110,000.

Russia's immediate goal is to recruit 415,000 contract soldiers, of which 300,000 will serve as reserves, and 115,000 will form new units or supplement units based on current estimates that Russian forces in Ukraine had a shortfall of 50,000 troops and 40,000 reserve troops, the document says.

The plan was opposed by some Russian economic officials concerned about the possible impact on the civilian workforce. However, this did not stop the recruitment campaign and propaganda of the benefits of military service that swept across Russia during the spring.

• The first documents of the US security services, which were considered classified, began to appear online in early March. However, they came to the center of media attention a month later, when the information began to touch on the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

• On April 9, investigative journalists from Bellingcat found out that the original source of the leaked classified Pentagon documents on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive was a Discord server. CNN reported that the Ukrainian military command changed some of its military plans after the leak of classified Pentagon documents online.

• On April 14, the FBI arrested suspect Jack Teixeira, but the documents continue to be published by various media. They relate not only to Ukraine and Russia, but also to the Middle East, China, and the Indo-Pacific region.

• Subsequently, the 102nd Intelligence Division of the US Air Force, in which Jack Teixeira, who is accused of leaking Pentagon documents, served, suspended its intelligence activities.

• Espreso has collected the most important leaks that affect Ukraine in one way or another.