Readiness check of Belarusian troops isn't point to invasion in Ukraine - ISW
American analysts believe that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine, despite the snap comprehensive readiness check of its troops on December 13.
This is stated in the Institute for the study of war (ISW) report.
Thus, on December 13, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, ordered a comprehensive emergency check of the Belarusian military readiness.
"The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine. It involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively)," the experts note.
Footage posted on social media on December 13 shows a convoy of Belarusian infantry fighting vehicles and trucks reportedly moving from Kolodishchi (east of Minsk) in Gatava (6 km south of Minsk).
It is also known that Belarusian forces deployed 25 BTR-80s and 30 trucks with personnel in Malaryta, Brest (about 15 km from Ukraine) on December 13. Russian T-80 tanks were transferred from the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in Brest, Belarus, to the Brest training ground in Brest (about 30 km from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border) around December 12.
It is also known about Russia's transfer of three Mig-31ks to the Belarusian airfield in Machulishchy.
The Institute believes "these deployments are likely part of ongoing Russian information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."