Putin's nuclear goals: intimidation, bargaining and the illusion of control

Putin's statements about nuclear weapons are orchestrated and prepared in advance. They have two audiences. First, the Russian population. Putin once again wanted to remind Russians that they should be proud of the world's largest nuclear weapons arsenal, because there is nothing else to be proud of. And, of course, to reassure them that he was not going to use these weapons.

Second, the main audience is the West. And here Putin has three goals.

The first is to instill fear among certain Western politicians and especially society as a whole. Among other things, he is trying to drive a wedge between them, hoping that public support for supplying us with weapons will decrease. This is exactly what the statements about the possibility of strikes on Western airfields where F-16s are supposed to be based are designed to do. In reality, this would mean a nuclear strike on NATO and contradicts even Russian doctrines on the use of nuclear weapons. But Putin's calculation is simple - no one would really recognize this.

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The second goal is to gain as much as possible from the start of talks with the US on nuclear weapons restrictions and control. Putin has suspended the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but Russia is still adhering to the limitations outlined in the agreement, despite the absence of information exchange or inspections between the US and Russia.

“The treaty expires in 2026, and Biden's national security adviser, Jack Sullivan, recently suggested starting a conversation about what comes next. Putin understands that this topic is of interest to both the Americans and the world, and he will try to get as much as possible out of it.”

Simultaneously, Putin intends to position himself as an ally to China in this realm. This motive underlies Putin's declaration that Russia has no plans to decrease its nuclear weapons arsenal.

Read also:  Putin pushes Russia into Eurasia

And the third is to show that Russia is increasing its control over Belarus, and now has an additional arsenal "pushed towards Europe."

In general, it's the same song: "make a deal with me, because I have the most nuclear weapons and it will continue to be so." The Americans understand the challenges associated with strategic arms control, but they also understand Russia's weaknesses, because it will not be able to sustain an arms race under sanctions. The USSR collapsed even without being sanctioned. But explaining to Western societies that more weapons for us does not mean more nuclear threat for them is becoming a challenge for us and our allies.

Fear is a serious weapon, but it does not affect Ukraine anymore. However, it is crucial to prevent any decrease in military support as a result of Russia’s intimidation tactics.

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About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.