Putin and Prigozhin: illusion of reconciliation

The meeting between Prigozhin and Putin signifies:

1. A sharp weakening of Putin. He ceased to be the alpha in politics as early as August of last year. Now he is the "collective Putin" who will make all decisions, taking into account his surroundings.

2. The fact that this meeting was made public indicates that there are no secrets in Russia. Everything leaks. The decision to publicize it was most likely made preemptively. Some Western media outlet was expected to break this "exclusive" story.

3. There is a high probability that Kovalchuk brought Prigozhin to Putin's attention.

We will need to keep an eye on this, but it seems that the Kovalchuk-Kiriienko tandem is becoming the most influential group in the Kremlin. This is not the best signal for us: this tandem is the most intelligent and systematic in Putin's circle.

4. As for the leadership of the army, Putin continues to play the old "Syrian game": not creating new Zhukovs (the leader of the Russian military group in Syria held his position for 7-9 months). The same will happen now with the leadership of the so-called “special military operation”. Meanwhile, Putin is confident that Ukraine will not be able to sell minefields in southern Ukraine and believes that there is no need to worry much about the war.

5. Regarding Prigozhin, he has not shut down his media holding and remains the key Russian figure in Africa. He has reduced his activities but is waiting for the right opportunity to enter politics. Putin cannot eliminate him, neither now nor in the short term (reasons - see point 1).

6. Overall, it seems that the situation at the top has been somewhat stabilized for now. However, this stabilization consists of creating a virtual world for the comfort of one person - Putin.

Influential groups will maintain the illusion of Putin's all-powerfulness for a certain period in order to manipulate him. How long this calm will last is difficult to say.

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that this construct cannot be long-lasting. The main question is whether the Kremlin's influential groups will dare to initiate a power transition before the next presidential elections. The likelihood of such a process currently stands at 30 to 70. And this is despite the fact that 2-3 months ago, the likelihood of such a scenario approached zero.

Source

About the author: Vadim Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.