Panic in Russia over Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Crimea, other Russian-occupied areas - ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas.

According to the institute, "Ukrainian strikes cause a resonance in the Russian information space, despite the fact that these reports were most likely inflated".

As ISW reported on August 18, Russian sources were mostly reporting and spreading false or exaggerated reports indicating panic in Russia.

The Russian authorities are significantly tightening security measures in Crimea, which indicates the growing concern of the Russian leadership and the civilian population about the threat of Ukrainian strikes on rear areas that were previously considered safe.

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on August 19 almost did not change, despite the statements of the Ministry of Defense of Russia on August 18 that Ukrainian troops would stage a provocation at the ZNPP on August 19.

Key Takeaways:

• Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transport infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas.

• The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remained relatively unchanged on August 19 despite Russian claims that Ukrainian forces would stage a provocation at the plant.

• Russian authorities are likely preparing to show trials of Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal on Ukraine’s Independence Day in order to further consolidate occupational control of occupied areas of Ukraine and set conditions to demoralize Ukrainian troops.

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, southwest and southeast of Izyum, east of Siversk, and south and east of Bakhmut.

• Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements on the Southern Axis.

• Russia continues to generate regional volunteer units and will likely deploy many of them to Kherson and Ukraine’s south as part of the 3rd Army Corps. 

• Russian occupation authorities are strengthening their control of educational infrastructure in occupied areas in preparation for the approaching school year and may be sending Ukrainian children to Russia as part of a broader repopulation campaign.